Nonlinearity, Endogeneity, and Interaction: Implications for European Reform of Budgetary Rules

IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS

Italian Economic Journal Pub Date : 2023-11-23 DOI:10.1007/s40797-023-00253-3

Alessandro Bellocchi, Giuseppe Travaglini

引用次数: 0

Abstract

EU fiscal rules have been suspended until 2024. European policymakers are considering whether to reinstate the existing fiscal rules or to define a new framework. Member States must have enough fiscal space. But the sustainability of public debt must be safeguarded. We use a nonlinear dynamic model to test if a primary balance adjustment rule can preserve debt sustainability in the presence of interactions between fiscal policy, economic growth, and interest rates. We find that a dynamic adjustment rule to changes in debt service can reduce the equilibrium debt ratio, even stabilizing the associated risk premium.

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非线性、内生性和相互作用:对欧洲预算规则改革的启示

欧盟财政规则已暂停执行至2024年。欧洲政策制定者正在考虑是恢复现有的财政规则，还是制定一个新的框架。会员国必须有足够的财政空间。但公共债务的可持续性必须得到保障。我们使用一个非线性动态模型来检验在财政政策、经济增长和利率之间存在相互作用的情况下，基本平衡调整规则是否可以保持债务的可持续性。我们发现，对偿债变化的动态调整规则可以降低均衡负债率，甚至稳定相关的风险溢价。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Italian Economic Journal ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

2.30

自引率

8.30%

发文量

期刊介绍： Italian Economic Journal (ItEJ) is the official peer-reviewed journal of the Italian Economic Association. ItEJ publishes scientific articles in all areas of economics and economic policy, providing a scholarly, international forum for all methodological approaches and schools of thought. In particular, ItEJ aims at encouraging and disseminating high-quality research on the Italian and the European economy. To fulfill this aim, the journal welcomes applied, institutional and theoretical papers on relevant and timely issues concerning the European and Italian economic debate.ItEJ merges the Rivista Italiana degli Economisti (RIE), the journal founded by the Italian Economic Association in 1996, with the Giornale degli Economisti (GdE), founded in 1875 and enriched by contributions from renowned economists, including Amoroso, Black, Barone, De Viti de Marco, Edgeworth, Einaudi, Modigliani, Pantaleoni, Pareto, Slutsky, Tinbergen and Walras.