The Young, the Old, and the Government: Demographics and Fiscal Multipliers

IF 6.3 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Henrique S. Basso, Omar Rachedi
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

We document that government spending multipliers depend on the population age structure. Using the variation in military spending and birth rates across US states, we show that the local fiscal multiplier is 1.5 and increases with the population share of young people, implying multipliers of 1.1–1.9 in the interquartile range. A parsimonious life cycle open economy New Keynesian model with credit market imperfections and age-specific differences in labor supply and demand explains 87 percent of the relationship between local multipliers and demographics. The model implies that the US population aging between 1980 and 2015 caused a 38 percent drop in national government spending multipliers. (JEL D15, E12, E24, E62, J11, J22, J23)
年轻人、老年人和政府:人口统计和财政乘数
我们证明了政府支出乘数取决于人口年龄结构。利用美国各州军费开支和出生率的变化,我们发现地方财政乘数为1.5,并随着年轻人的人口份额而增加,这意味着在四分位数范围内乘数为1.1-1.9。具有信贷市场不完善和劳动力供需年龄差异的新凯恩斯主义模型解释了当地乘数与人口统计之间87%的关系。该模型表明,1980年至2015年间,美国人口老龄化导致国家政府支出乘数下降38%。(jd15, e12, e24, e62, j11, j22, j23)
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来源期刊
CiteScore
8.20
自引率
1.70%
发文量
58
期刊介绍: American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics focuses on studies of aggregate fluctuations and growth, and the role of policy in that context. Such studies often borrow from and interact with research in other fields, such as monetary theory, industrial organization, finance, labor economics, political economy, public finance, international economics, and development economics. To the extent that they make a contribution to macroeconomics, papers in these fields are also welcome.
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