Uncertainty Spillovers for Markets and Policy

IF 6.8 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Lars Peter Hansen
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Abstract

We live in a world filled with uncertainty. In this essay, I show that featuring this phenomenon more in economic analyses adds to our understanding of how financial markets work and how best to design prudent economic policy. This essay explores methods that allow for a broader conceptualization of uncertainty than is typical in economic investigations. These methods draw on insights from decision theory to engage in uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis. Uncertainty quantification in economics differs from uncertainty quantification in most sciences because there is uncertainty from the perspective both of an external observer and of people and enterprises within the model. I illustrate these methods in two example economies in which the understanding of long-term growth is limited. One example looks at uncertainty ramifications for fluctuations in financial markets, and the other considers the prudent design of policy when the quantitative magnitude of climate change and its impact on economic opportunities are unknown.
不确定性对市场和政策的溢出效应
我们生活在一个充满不确定性的世界。在这篇文章中,我表明,在经济分析中更多地体现这一现象,有助于我们理解金融市场的运作方式,以及如何最好地设计审慎的经济政策。本文探讨的方法允许不确定性概念化比典型的经济调查更广泛。这些方法借鉴决策理论的见解,从事不确定性量化和敏感性分析。经济学中的不确定性量化不同于大多数科学中的不确定性量化,因为从外部观察者和模型内的人和企业的角度来看,都存在不确定性。我用两个对长期增长理解有限的经济体的例子来说明这些方法。一个例子着眼于金融市场波动的不确定性后果,另一个例子则考虑在气候变化的数量大小及其对经济机会的影响未知的情况下谨慎设计政策。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
9.70
自引率
3.60%
发文量
34
期刊介绍: The Annual Review of Economics covers significant developments in the field of economics, including macroeconomics and money; microeconomics, including economic psychology; international economics; public finance; health economics; education; economic growth and technological change; economic development; social economics, including culture, institutions, social interaction, and networks; game theory, political economy, and social choice; and more.
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