{"title":"Does model complexity improve pricing accuracy? The case of CoCos","authors":"Christian Koziol, Sebastian Weitz","doi":"10.1007/s11147-021-09178-4","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>In this study, we analyze whether model complexity improves accuracy of CoCo pricing models. We compare the out-of-sample pricing ability of four models using a broad dataset that contains all CoCos which were issued between January 1, 2013 and May 31, 2016 in euros. The regarded models include the standard model from De Spiegeleer and Schoutens (J Deriv 20:27–36, 2012), a modified version enriched by credit risk, an extended model that accounts for the effective lifetime of the CoCo, and a trading model, solely based on historic market prices but no pricing theory at all. For a normal market environment, the simple trading model provides a higher pricing accuracy than the theory-based models. Under distress, however, a theory-based model with a sufficiently high complexity is required.</p>","PeriodicalId":45022,"journal":{"name":"Review of Derivatives Research","volume":"41 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7000,"publicationDate":"2021-05-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"2","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Review of Derivatives Research","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11147-021-09178-4","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"BUSINESS, FINANCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Abstract
In this study, we analyze whether model complexity improves accuracy of CoCo pricing models. We compare the out-of-sample pricing ability of four models using a broad dataset that contains all CoCos which were issued between January 1, 2013 and May 31, 2016 in euros. The regarded models include the standard model from De Spiegeleer and Schoutens (J Deriv 20:27–36, 2012), a modified version enriched by credit risk, an extended model that accounts for the effective lifetime of the CoCo, and a trading model, solely based on historic market prices but no pricing theory at all. For a normal market environment, the simple trading model provides a higher pricing accuracy than the theory-based models. Under distress, however, a theory-based model with a sufficiently high complexity is required.
期刊介绍：
The proliferation of derivative assets during the past two decades is unprecedented. With this growth in derivatives comes the need for financial institutions, institutional investors, and corporations to use sophisticated quantitative techniques to take full advantage of the spectrum of these new financial instruments. Academic research has significantly contributed to our understanding of derivative assets and markets. The growth of derivative asset markets has been accompanied by a commensurate growth in the volume of scientific research. The Review of Derivatives Research provides an international forum for researchers involved in the general areas of derivative assets. The Review publishes high-quality articles dealing with the pricing and hedging of derivative assets on any underlying asset (commodity, interest rate, currency, equity, real estate, traded or non-traded, etc.). Specific topics include but are not limited to: econometric analyses of derivative markets (efficiency, anomalies, performance, etc.) analysis of swap markets market microstructure and volatility issues regulatory and taxation issues credit risk new areas of applications such as corporate finance (capital budgeting, debt innovations), international trade (tariffs and quotas), banking and insurance (embedded options, asset-liability management) risk-sharing issues and the design of optimal derivative securities risk management, management and control valuation and analysis of the options embedded in capital projects valuation and hedging of exotic options new areas for further development (i.e. natural resources, environmental economics. The Review has a double-blind refereeing process. In contrast to the delays in the decision making and publication processes of many current journals, the Review will provide authors with an initial decision within nine weeks of receipt of the manuscript and a goal of publication within six months after acceptance. Finally, a section of the journal is available for rapid publication on `hot'' issues in the market, small technical pieces, and timely essays related to pending legislation and policy. Officially cited as: Rev Deriv Res
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