U.S. Fertility Decline and Recuperation Following the Great Recession by County-Level Industrial Composition of the Labor Force

Abstract

Amid a persistent U.S. fertility decline since the Great Recession, fertility recuperation patterns by geographic regions were not homogeneous. This study hypothesizes that the geographic discrepancies in fertility patterns are attributable to different labor force compositions by the regions. We use data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Annual Estimates of the Resident Population County Components of Population Change to estimate the discrepancy in fertility variations at the county-level. By comparing the slopes of births before and following the recession, we visualize the characteristics of fertility variations at the U.S. county-level. Also, a multiple linear regression model estimates that the counties with a greater share of labor force in wholesale trade, information & technology, finance & insurance, and professional & scientific industry show greater volatility in fertility trends throughout the Great Recession. On the contrary, the counties with higher proportions of the labor force in agriculture, retail trade, and education industry tend to less change over the years of the economic recession. However, fertility recuperation is limitedly identified amid the structural fertility decline after the Great Recession.