An Ex-Ante Assessment of the AGI: Firm-Level Evidence from Belgian Tax Return Data

IF 0.8 4区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Cesifo Economic Studies Pub Date : 2021-08-21 DOI:10.1093/cesifo/ifab007

Buyl P, Roggeman A, Verleyen I.

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Abstract

Using confidential tax return data, we provide a unique research setting in which the Belgian notional interest deduction (NID) is replaced by the Allowance for Growth and Investment (AGI) as it is proposed by the European Commission. Our results show that the AGI would be a more viable option from a budgetary view. From a company view, however, introducing an AGI system would increase the probability of a higher effective tax rate (ETR). Especially large companies would be harmed as they would face a 7.6 percentage point higher probability of an ETR increase compared with SMEs. Furthermore, we find that there is a positive relationship between the equity ratio and the increased ETR, which is stronger for large firms compared to SMEs. This is in line with previous studies stating that large firms adjusted more aggressively to the NID by increasing their equity ratio more heavily than SMEs. However, large firms still face an ETR that is on average 10.4 percentage points lower compared with SMEs, indicating that the AGI is insufficient to undo the unequal level playing field between large and small companies. (JEL codes: H21, G32, H25, K34).

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AGI的事前评估:来自比利时纳税申报数据的企业层面证据

摘要利用保密的纳税申报数据，我们提供了一个独特的研究环境，其中比利时的名义利息扣除(NID)被欧盟委员会提出的增长和投资津贴(AGI)所取代。我们的结果表明，从预算的角度来看，AGI将是一个更可行的选择。然而，从公司的角度来看，引入AGI系统将增加提高有效税率(ETR)的可能性。特别是大企业，与中小企业相比，它们面临的ETR上升的可能性将高出7.6个百分点。此外，我们发现股权比率与ETR的增加之间存在正相关关系，与中小企业相比，大企业的正相关关系更强。这与之前的研究一致，即大公司比中小企业更积极地通过增加股本比率来调整NID。然而，与中小企业相比，大公司仍然面临平均低10.4个百分点的ETR，这表明AGI不足以消除大公司和小企业之间不平等的公平竞争环境。(JEL代码:H21, G32, H25, K34)。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Cesifo Economic Studies ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

2.70

自引率

7.70%

发文量

期刊介绍： CESifo Economic Studies publishes provocative, high-quality papers in economics, with a particular focus on policy issues. Papers by leading academics are written for a wide and global audience, including those in government, business, and academia. The journal combines theory and empirical research in a style accessible to economists across all specialisations.