The Coming Rise in Residential Inflation

IF 5.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Review of Finance Pub Date : 2022-08-05 DOI:10.1093/rof/rfac048

Marijn A Bolhuis, Judd N L Cramer, Lawrence H Summers

引用次数: 0

Abstract

We study how the recent run-up in housing and rental prices affects the outlook for inflation in the United States. Housing held down overall inflation in 2021. Despite record growth in private market-based measures of home prices and rents, government measured residential services inflation was only four percent for the twelve months ending in January 2022. After explaining the mechanical cause for this divergence, we estimate that, if past relationships hold, the residential inflation components of the CPI and PCE are likely to move close to seven percent during 2022. These findings imply that housing will make a significant contribution to overall inflation in 2022, ranging from one percentage point for headline PCE, to 2.6 percentage points for core CPI. We expect residential inflation to remain elevated in 2023.

查看原文本刊更多论文

即将到来的住宅通胀上升

我们研究了最近住房和租赁价格的上涨如何影响美国的通货膨胀前景。2021年，房地产市场抑制了整体通胀。尽管以私人市场为基础的房价和租金指标出现了创纪录的增长，但截至2022年1月的12个月里，政府衡量的住宅服务通胀仅为4%。在解释了这种差异的机械原因之后，我们估计，如果过去的关系成立，CPI和PCE的住宅通胀组成部分可能在2022年接近7%。这些发现意味着，住房将对2022年的整体通胀做出重大贡献，从总体个人消费支出的1个百分点到核心CPI的2.6个百分点不等。我们预计，2023年住宅通胀仍将居高不下。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Review of Finance Multiple-

CiteScore

7.80

自引率

2.30%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Review of Finance, the official journal of the European Finance Association, aims at a wide circulation and visibility in the finance profession. The journal publishes high-quality papers in all areas of financial economics, both established and newly developing fields: • •Asset pricing •Corporate finance •Banking and market microstructure •Law and finance •Behavioral finance •Experimental finance Review of Finance occasionally publishes special issues on timely topics, including selected papers presented at the meetings of the European Finance Association or at other selected conferences in the field.