An expectation maximization algorithm for the hidden markov models with multiparameter student-t observations

Abstract

Hidden Markov models are a class of probabilistic graphical models used to describe the evolution of a sequence of unknown variables from a set of observed variables. They are statistical models introduced by Baum and Petrie in Baum (JMA 101:789–810) and belong to the class of latent variable models. Initially developed and applied in the context of speech recognition, they have attracted much attention in many fields of application. The central objective of this research work is upon an extension of these models. More accurately, we define multiparameter hidden Markov models, using multiple observation processes and the Riesz distribution on the space of symmetric matrices as a natural extension of the gamma one. Some basic related properties are discussed and marginal and posterior distributions are derived. We conduct the Forward-Backward dynamic programming algorithm and the classical Expectation Maximization algorithm to estimate the global set of parameters. Using simulated data, the performance of these estimators is conveniently achieved by the Matlab program. This allows us to assess the quality of the proposed estimators by means of the mean square errors between the true and the estimated values.