Causality and management of forest fires in Mediterranean environments: an example from Catalonia

Anna Badia, David Saurı́, Rufı́ Cerdan, Joan-Carles Llurdés
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Abstract

In this article we argue that the growing occurrence and impacts of forest fires in Catalonia can be mainly attributed not to climate change or individual misbehavior but to the decline of the landscape mosaic that has historically characterized Mediterranean rural areas. Recent socio-economic change has resulted in an uncontrolled growth of the forest masses in turn facilitating the propagation of large fires. Forest fire policy has reacted compulsively after the great fire waves of the last decades overemphasizing extinction to the detriment of prevention, and individual education to the detriment of a more comprehensive rural development planning. This option reflects a biased analysis of causality, which we examine in the context of the hazard chain developed by researchers at Clark University. Using the example of the Bages County in central Catalonia we outline the problems associated with the conventional approach to forest fire management and also the difficulties faced by alternative choices.

地中海地区森林火灾的因果关系和管理:以加泰罗尼亚为例
在本文中,我们认为,加泰罗尼亚森林火灾的发生和影响的增加主要不是由于气候变化或个人行为不当,而是由于地中海农村地区历史上特征的景观马赛克的下降。最近的社会经济变化导致森林面积不受控制地增长,反过来又促进了大火的蔓延。在过去几十年的大火浪潮之后,森林火灾政策做出了强制性的反应,过分强调灭绝而不利于预防,过分强调个人教育而不利于更全面的农村发展规划。这一选择反映了因果关系的偏差分析,我们在克拉克大学研究人员开发的危害链的背景下进行了检查。我们以加泰罗尼亚中部贝吉斯县为例,概述了与森林火灾管理的传统方法有关的问题,以及其他选择所面临的困难。
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