Investigating how exchange rates affected the Japanese economy after the advent of Abenomics

Willem Thorbecke
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Abstract

News of aggressive monetary easing by the Bank of Japan in late 2012 contributed to a 45 percent depreciation of the Japanese yen relative to the U.S. dollar. This paper investigates how the depreciation affected the Japanese economy. Exports responded much less than predicted, especially for sectors related to transportation equipment. Imports also responded less than predicted, and the sum of export and import elasticities are too small to meet the Marshall-Lerner condition. A depreciation raises returns for many Japanese stocks, with the response being largest for automobile stocks. A depreciation also raises aggregate Japanese stock returns by twice as much after 2013 as before. This indicates that responses that corporate Japan made to swings in the yen such as transferring production abroad have been good for profitability.

调查安倍经济学出现后汇率对日本经济的影响
2012年底,日本央行(Bank of Japan)积极放松货币政策的消息导致日元对美元贬值了45%。本文考察了货币贬值对日本经济的影响。出口的反应远低于预期,特别是与运输设备有关的部门。进口的反应也低于预期,进出口弹性之和太小,无法满足马歇尔-勒纳条件。日元贬值提高了许多日本股票的回报率,其中汽车类股票的涨幅最大。日元贬值也使日本股市在2013年后的总回报率提高了一倍。这表明,日本企业对日元波动做出的反应,如将生产转移到海外,对盈利能力有好处。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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