Feedback dynamics of the low‐income rental housing market: exploring policy responses to COVID‐19

IF 1.7 3区管理学 Q3 MANAGEMENT

System Dynamics Review Pub Date : 2023-09-20 DOI:10.1002/sdr.1746

Katherine E. Marçal, Patrick J. Fowler, Peter S. Hovmand

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Abstract The economic impact of COVID‐19 threatened mass housing insecurity undermining the health and financial recovery from the pandemic. Unprecedented federal policy responses halted court‐ordered evictions and injected billions of dollars in rental assistance, but questions remain whether housing interventions adequately accounted for dynamics that drive landlord‐tenant interactions, including accumulations of rental and mortgage arrears, rental unit availability, and low‐income housing options. A system dynamics model probes complex feedback dynamics driving tenant and landlord decision‐making in the low‐income rental housing market pre‐ and postpandemic protections. Feedback loops highlight trade‐offs considered by low‐income tenants and landlords in the context of scarcity and uncertainty. Simulations suggest the eviction moratorium and federal emergency rental assistance prevented a tidal wave of evictions, but rental arrears, overcrowding, and homelessness remain elevated. Failure to address underlying financial hardship and limited affordable housing undermines COVID recovery. © 2023 The Authors. System Dynamics Review published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of System Dynamics Society.

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低收入租赁住房市场的反馈动态:探索应对COVID - 19的政策措施

COVID - 19的经济影响威胁到大规模住房不安全，破坏了疫情后的健康和金融复苏。前所未有的联邦政策反应阻止了法院命令的驱逐，并注入了数十亿美元的租金援助，但问题仍然存在，住房干预是否充分解释了推动房东与租户互动的动态，包括租金和抵押贷款拖欠的积累，租赁单元的可用性和低收入住房选择。一个系统动力学模型探讨了在流行病前后的保护措施中驱动低收入租赁住房市场租户和房东决策的复杂反馈动力学。反馈循环强调了在稀缺和不确定性的背景下低收入租户和房东所考虑的权衡。模拟表明，暂停驱逐和联邦紧急租赁援助阻止了驱逐浪潮，但租金拖欠、过度拥挤和无家可归现象仍然居高不下。如果不能解决潜在的经济困难和有限的经济适用房，就会破坏COVID - 19的复苏。©2023作者。John Wiley &出版的《系统动力学评论》;儿子有限公司代表系统动力学学会。

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来源期刊

System Dynamics Review Multiple-

CiteScore

6.60

自引率

8.30%

发文量

期刊介绍： The System Dynamics Review exists to communicate to a wide audience advances in the application of the perspectives and methods of system dynamics to societal, technical, managerial, and environmental problems. The Review publishes: advances in mathematical modelling and computer simulation of dynamic feedback systems; advances in methods of policy analysis based on information feedback and circular causality; generic structures (dynamic feedback systems that support particular widely applicable behavioural insights); system dynamics contributions to theory building in the social and natural sciences; policy studies and debate emphasizing the role of feedback and circular causality in problem behaviour.