Projecting the Impact of Rising Temperatures: The Role of Macroeconomic Dynamics

IF 3.3 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Imf Economic Review Pub Date : 2023-06-21 DOI:10.1057/s41308-023-00203-0

Gregory Casey, Stephie Fried, Ethan Goode

引用次数: 1

Abstract

We use theory and empirics to distinguish between the impact of temperature on transition (temporary) and steady-state (permanent) growth in output per capita. Standard economic theory suggests that the long-run growth rate of output per capita is determined entirely by the growth rate of total factor productivity (TFP). We find evidence suggesting that the level of temperature affects the level of TFP, but not the growth rate of TFP. This implies that a change in temperature will have a temporary impact on growth in output per capita. To highlight the quantitative importance of distinguishing between permanent and temporary changes in economic growth, we use our empirical estimates and theoretical framework to project the impacts of future increases in temperature caused by climate change. We find losses that are substantial, but smaller than those in the existing empirical literature that assumes a change in temperature permanently affects economic growth.

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预测气温上升的影响:宏观经济动态的作用

我们使用理论和经验来区分温度对人均产出的过渡(暂时)和稳态(永久)增长的影响。标准经济理论认为，人均产出的长期增长率完全由全要素生产率(TFP)的增长率决定。我们发现有证据表明，温度水平影响TFP的水平，但不影响TFP的增长率。这意味着气温的变化将对人均产出的增长产生暂时的影响。为了强调区分经济增长中的永久变化和暂时变化在数量上的重要性，我们使用我们的经验估计和理论框架来预测气候变化引起的未来温度升高的影响。我们发现损失是巨大的，但比现有实证文献中假设温度变化会永久影响经济增长的损失要小。

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来源期刊

Imf Economic Review Multiple-

CiteScore

5.50

自引率

4.70%

发文量

期刊介绍： The IMF Economic Review is the official research journal of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). It is dedicated to publishing peer-reviewed, high-quality, context-related academic research on open-economy macroeconomics. It emphasizes rigorous analysis with an empirical orientation that is of interest to a broad audience, including academics and policymakers. Studies that borrow from, and interact with, other fields such as finance, international trade, political economy, labor, economic history or development are also welcome. The views presented in published papers are those of the authors and should not be attributed to, or reported as, reflecting the position of the IMF, its Executive Board, or any other organization mentioned herein. Comments “The IMF Economic Review has been uniquely successful in publishing papers that rigorously analyze real international macroeconomic problems and in a manner that has immediate policy relevance. This success is owed to a great extent to the high quality of the editorial board, which is able to identify papers that are both relevant for policy and are executed using state-of-the-art tools so as to make the analysis compelling.” - Gita Gopinath, Economic Counsellor and Director of Research, IMF “IMF Economic Review is devoted to state-of-the-art research on the global economy. Given the Fund''s unique position on the front lines of surveillance and crisis management, anyone interested in international economic policy or in macroeconomics more generally will find this journal to be essential reading.” - Maurice Obstfeld, Professor of Economics at University of California, Berkeley; and former Economic Counsellor and Director of Research, IMF “There is great need for a rigorous academic publication that addresses the key global macro questions of our times. This is what the IMF Economic Review aims to be.” - Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Professor of Economics at University of California, Berkeley; and former Editor of the IMF Economic Review “To navigate the global crisis, and to take the best policy decisions, will require mobilizing and extending the knowledge we have about open economy macro, from the implications of liquidity traps, to the dangers of large fiscal deficits, to macro-financial interactions, to the contours of a better international monetary and financial system. My hope and my expectation is that the IMF Economic Review will be central to the effort.” - Olivier J. Blanchard, Peterson Institute for International Economics; former Economic Counsellor and Director of Research Department, IMF