{"title":"An analysis of protesting activity and trauma through mathematical and statistical models","authors":"Nancy Rodríguez, David White","doi":"10.1186/s40163-023-00197-0","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The effect that different police protest management methods have on protesters’ physical and mental trauma is still not well understood and is a matter of debate. In this paper, we take a two-pronged approach to gain insight into this issue. First, we perform statistical analysis on time series data of protests provided by ACLED and spanning the period of time from January 1, 2020, until March 13, 2021. After observing the data, it becomes apparent that employing kinetic impact projectiles is correlated with an increase in protests in the following days. Moreover, it serves as a more accurate indicator of the subsequent death toll compared to the mere number of protests. This leads to the conclusion that the utilization of less-lethal weapons appears to provoke rather than quell protests, exhibiting an inflammatory effect. Next, we provide a mathematical framework to model modern, but well-established social psychology research on compliance theory and crowd dynamics. Our results show that understanding the heterogeneity of the crowd is key for protests that lead to a reduction of social tension and minimization of physical and mental trauma in protesters.","PeriodicalId":37844,"journal":{"name":"Crime Science","volume":"92 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1000,"publicationDate":"2023-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Crime Science","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s40163-023-00197-0","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Abstract The effect that different police protest management methods have on protesters’ physical and mental trauma is still not well understood and is a matter of debate. In this paper, we take a two-pronged approach to gain insight into this issue. First, we perform statistical analysis on time series data of protests provided by ACLED and spanning the period of time from January 1, 2020, until March 13, 2021. After observing the data, it becomes apparent that employing kinetic impact projectiles is correlated with an increase in protests in the following days. Moreover, it serves as a more accurate indicator of the subsequent death toll compared to the mere number of protests. This leads to the conclusion that the utilization of less-lethal weapons appears to provoke rather than quell protests, exhibiting an inflammatory effect. Next, we provide a mathematical framework to model modern, but well-established social psychology research on compliance theory and crowd dynamics. Our results show that understanding the heterogeneity of the crowd is key for protests that lead to a reduction of social tension and minimization of physical and mental trauma in protesters.
期刊介绍:
Crime Science is an international, interdisciplinary, peer-reviewed journal with an applied focus. The journal''s main focus is on research articles and systematic reviews that reflect the growing cooperation among a variety of fields, including environmental criminology, economics, engineering, geography, public health, psychology, statistics and urban planning, on improving the detection, prevention and understanding of crime and disorder. Crime Science will publish theoretical articles that are relevant to the field, for example, approaches that integrate theories from different disciplines. The goal of the journal is to broaden the scientific base for the understanding, analysis and control of crime and disorder. It is aimed at researchers, practitioners and policy-makers with an interest in crime reduction. It will also publish short contributions on timely topics including crime patterns, technological advances for detection and prevention, and analytical techniques, and on the crime reduction applications of research from a wide range of fields. Crime Science publishes research articles, systematic reviews, short contributions and theoretical articles. While Crime Science uses the APA reference style, the journal welcomes submissions using alternative reference styles on a case-by-case basis.