An analysis of protesting activity and trauma through mathematical and statistical models

IF 3.1 Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY

Crime Science Pub Date : 2023-10-10 DOI:10.1186/s40163-023-00197-0

Nancy Rodríguez, David White

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Abstract The effect that different police protest management methods have on protesters’ physical and mental trauma is still not well understood and is a matter of debate. In this paper, we take a two-pronged approach to gain insight into this issue. First, we perform statistical analysis on time series data of protests provided by ACLED and spanning the period of time from January 1, 2020, until March 13, 2021. After observing the data, it becomes apparent that employing kinetic impact projectiles is correlated with an increase in protests in the following days. Moreover, it serves as a more accurate indicator of the subsequent death toll compared to the mere number of protests. This leads to the conclusion that the utilization of less-lethal weapons appears to provoke rather than quell protests, exhibiting an inflammatory effect. Next, we provide a mathematical framework to model modern, but well-established social psychology research on compliance theory and crowd dynamics. Our results show that understanding the heterogeneity of the crowd is key for protests that lead to a reduction of social tension and minimization of physical and mental trauma in protesters.

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通过数学和统计模型分析抗议活动和创伤

不同的警察抗议管理方法对抗议者身体和精神创伤的影响仍然没有得到很好的理解，并且是一个争论的问题。在本文中，我们将采取双管齐下的方法来深入了解这个问题。首先，对ACLED提供的抗议活动时间序列数据进行统计分析，时间跨度为2020年1月1日至2021年3月13日。在观察数据后，很明显，使用动能冲击弹与随后几天抗议活动的增加有关。此外，与单纯的抗议次数相比，它可以更准确地反映随后的死亡人数。由此得出的结论是，使用杀伤力较小的武器似乎是在挑起而不是平息抗议，表现出煽动性的效果。接下来，我们提供了一个数学框架来模拟现代的，但完善的社会心理学研究依从性理论和群体动力学。我们的研究结果表明，理解人群的异质性是导致抗议者减少社会紧张和最小化身心创伤的抗议的关键。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Crime Science Social Sciences-Cultural Studies

CiteScore

11.90

自引率

8.20%

发文量

审稿时长

13 weeks

期刊介绍： Crime Science is an international, interdisciplinary, peer-reviewed journal with an applied focus. The journal''s main focus is on research articles and systematic reviews that reflect the growing cooperation among a variety of fields, including environmental criminology, economics, engineering, geography, public health, psychology, statistics and urban planning, on improving the detection, prevention and understanding of crime and disorder. Crime Science will publish theoretical articles that are relevant to the field, for example, approaches that integrate theories from different disciplines. The goal of the journal is to broaden the scientific base for the understanding, analysis and control of crime and disorder. It is aimed at researchers, practitioners and policy-makers with an interest in crime reduction. It will also publish short contributions on timely topics including crime patterns, technological advances for detection and prevention, and analytical techniques, and on the crime reduction applications of research from a wide range of fields. Crime Science publishes research articles, systematic reviews, short contributions and theoretical articles. While Crime Science uses the APA reference style, the journal welcomes submissions using alternative reference styles on a case-by-case basis.