Has the tourism-led growth hypothesis been confirmed? Evidence from an updated literature review

Abstract

ABSTRACTAlthough it has been more than two decades since the completion of the first study establishing the tourism-led growth hypothesis (TLGH), this area of research still appears within the scientific literature in its analysis of tourism from an economic standpoint. In this regard, numerous studies have analysed the relationship between tourism and economic growth, usually measured using the arrival of tourists, tourism income and/or expenses for the first dimension and with GDP for the second. A first comprehensive review of these articles for the period 2002–2013, based on 95 peer-reviewed articles, was carried out, in which the main results obtained up to that time were evaluated. After this initial review, the interest found in the academic literature in its analysis of TLGH, far from diminishing, has continued with the publication of numerous articles on this field. Accordingly, 82 peer-reviewed empirical articles published during the 2014–2022 period are included in this analysis on a more current situation, along with the trends in the analysis of TLGH, determining whether the main conclusions based on the results, methodologies, measured variables or the destinations under study have remained the same compared to the previous decade or if there are any significant changes found within the scientific literature.KEYWORDS: Tourism developmenteconomic growthtourism-led growth hypothesiscomprehensive reviewGranger causality AcknowledgmentsA preliminary version of this paper was presented at the GAET Seminar on Tourism Management and Economics (UDELAR, Uruguay), April 20, 2023.Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).