{"title":"Did the citizenship income scheme do it? The supposed electoral consequence of a flagship policy","authors":"Marco Giuliani","doi":"10.1017/ipo.2023.19","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In the aftermath of the 2022 Italian legislative elections, but also during the entire electoral campaign, several claims were made that much of the electoral support for the Five Star Movement had been triggered by the ‘ Reddito di cittadinanza ’ – the welfare policy introduced in 2019 by the yellow–green government. This research note first distinguishes between distributive politics and policy voting, and then explores the empirical relationship between the geographical provision at the municipal level of the citizenship income and the vote for the party led by Giuseppe Conte. While traditional multivariate analyses fail to reveal any spurious relationship, matching techniques help highlight the absence of any causal relationship between the two variables.","PeriodicalId":43368,"journal":{"name":"Italian Political Science Review-Rivista Italiana di Scienza Politica","volume":"37 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7000,"publicationDate":"2023-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Italian Political Science Review-Rivista Italiana di Scienza Politica","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1017/ipo.2023.19","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"POLITICAL SCIENCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Abstract In the aftermath of the 2022 Italian legislative elections, but also during the entire electoral campaign, several claims were made that much of the electoral support for the Five Star Movement had been triggered by the ‘ Reddito di cittadinanza ’ – the welfare policy introduced in 2019 by the yellow–green government. This research note first distinguishes between distributive politics and policy voting, and then explores the empirical relationship between the geographical provision at the municipal level of the citizenship income and the vote for the party led by Giuseppe Conte. While traditional multivariate analyses fail to reveal any spurious relationship, matching techniques help highlight the absence of any causal relationship between the two variables.
在2022年意大利议会选举之后,以及在整个竞选活动中,有一些人声称,五星运动的大部分选举支持是由“Reddito di cittadinanza”引发的,这是黄绿政府在2019年推出的福利政策。本研究报告首先区分了分配政治和政策投票,然后探讨了城市层面公民收入的地理供应与朱塞佩·孔特领导的政党投票之间的实证关系。虽然传统的多变量分析无法揭示任何虚假的关系,但匹配技术有助于突出两个变量之间没有任何因果关系。