Impact of adjusted and non-adjusted surface observations on the cold season performance of the Canadian Precipitation Analysis (CaPA) System

Abstract

Abstract The Canadian Precipitation Analysis System (CaPA) is an operational system that uses a combination of weather gauge and ground-based radar measurements together with short-term forecasts from a numerical weather model to provide near-real-time estimates of 6 and 24-hour precipitation amounts. During the winter season, many gauge measurements are rejected by the CaPA quality control process due to the wind-induced undercatch for solid precipitation. The goal of this study is to improve the precipitation estimates over central Canada during the winter seasons from 2019 to 2022. Two approaches were tested. First, the quality control procedure in CaPA has been relaxed to increase the number of surface observations assimilated. Second, the automatic solid precipitation measurements were adjusted using a universal transfer function to compensate for the undercatch problem. Although increasing the wind speed threshold resulted in lower amounts and worse biases in frequency, the overall precipitation estimates is improved as the equitable threat score is improved due to a substantial decrease in the false alarm ratio, which compensates the degradation of the probability of detection. The increase of solid precipitation amounts using a transfer function improves the biases in both frequency and amounts, and the probability of detection for all precipitation thresholds. However, the false alarm ratio deteriorates for large thresholds. The statistics varies from year to year, but an overall improvement is demonstrated by increasing the number of stations and adjusting the solid precipitation amounts for wind speed undercatch.