The Relationship Between Inequality and Potential Emigration: Evidence from the Gallup World Poll

Abstract

The existing literature presents conflicting findings regarding the relationship between inequality and potential emigration. This paper utilizes individual-level data from the Gallup World Poll and country-level income inequality measures for 150 countries to contribute new evidence. The findings indicate that increasing inequality is linked to decreased desires and plans for emigration, a consistent global trend observed across various inequality measures and specifications. Notably, this association is more pronounced for women, individuals without overseas networks, and those lacking financial and human capital. Additionally, the study sheds light on how the level of economic development in countries influences the relationship. In low- and middle-income countries, rising inequality is negatively associated with emigration intentions. Conversely, in affluent nations, heightened inequality stimulates greater desires to emigrate, particularly among high-income and highly educated individuals. These insights provide a deeper understanding of how inequality shapes emigration in diverse world regions and across different cohorts, bridging gaps between previous divergent findings.