亞太市場智慧型與功能型手機之銷售分析

Abstract

本研究針對亞太地區功能型手機與智慧型手機進行銷售分析，首度運用Lotka-Volterra模型探討智慧型手機取代功能型手機的演化過程。過去行銷領域中有關行銷研究多以問卷為主，缺少實際銷售量佐證，因此，本研究以蒐集亞太地區之智慧型手機與功能型手機的每季銷售總額，運用Lotka-Volterra模型分析智慧型手機取代功能型手機的關係，本研究進而比較Lotka-Volterra模型與傳統Bass模型的預測能力，探討本研究所提出的Lotka-Volterra模型是否較傳統Bass模型精確。本研究結果發現口碑效果主導智慧型手機與功能型手機的銷售擴散，研究結果隱含消費者會參考既有手機消費者的口碑購買手機，此外，本研究參數結果顯示智慧型手機銷售額增加會造成功能型手機銷售額衰退，但功能型手機銷售額對智慧型手機的銷售成長無明顯影響，在亞太市場中存在偏害共生的關係，研究結果隱含智慧型手機除了傳統功能型手機的通訊功能，尚包括攝影、電子商務、觸控面板、媒體、網路、遊戲、和娛樂等功能，隨智慧型手機技術成熟，消費者傾向購買智慧型手機取代功能型手機，亞太地區智慧型手機市場會侵蝕功能型手機市場。本研究進而發現Lotka-Volterra模型預測智慧型手機和功能型手機的銷售量，較傳統Bass模型更為精確，研究結果顯示考量智慧型手機替代功能型手機的Lotka-Volterra模型預測能力較佳。最後，本研究發現季節調整的Lotka-Volterra模型預測能力較Lotka-Volterra模型為佳，研究結果隱含手機銷售的季節效果。  This study for the first time uses the Lotka-Volterra model to analyze the relationships between smartphones and feature phones. Most of the marketing research utilizes questionnaires, lacking evidence of actual sales volume. Therefore, this study collects the quarterly sales volume data of the mobiles in the Asia-Pacific area from the first quarter of 2008 to the fourth quarter of 2019 as our sample. We further conduct predictive analysis to explore the accuracy between the Lotka-Volterra model and the Bass model. The results of this study found that the word-of-mouth effect dominates the sales diffusion of smartphones and feature phones. The research results imply that consumers will purchase mobile phones with reference to the word-of-mouth of existing mobile phone consumers. In addition, the parameter results of this study show that there is an amensalism relationship between smartphones and feature phones in the Asia-Pacific mobile phone market. The increase in sales of smartphones will lead to a decline in the sales of feature phones, but the sales of feature phones have no significant impact on the sales growth of smartphones. In addition to the communication functions of traditional feature phones, smartphones also include functions such as photography, e-commerce, touch panels, media, the internet, games, and entertainment. With the maturity of smartphone technology, consumers tend to buy smartphones to replace feature phones, and the smartphone market in the Asia-Pacific region will erode the feature phone market. In terms of model accuracy, the Lotka-Volterra model predicts the sales volumes of smartphones and feature phones more accurately than the traditional Bass model. The results show that the Lotka-Volterra model considering the replacement of feature phones by smartphones has a better predictive ability. Finally, this study found that the seasonally adjusted Lotka-Volterra model outperforms the Lotka-Volterra model in predicting sales volumes, which implies the seasonal effect of mobile phone sales.