Analyzing the Impacts of Gasoline Price Change on Nationwide Trip Demand and Drivers’ Behavior Using Regression Discontinuity Design

IF 1.4 4区工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Scientia Iranica Pub Date : 2023-08-30 DOI:10.24200/sci.2023.58931.5973

Sepehr Saeidi, Zahra Amini

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Abstract

Gasoline is one of the essential commodities in today's societies and its price can affect different aspects of citizens' lives. This article studies the impacts of the sudden increase in gasoline price on the volume of intercity traffic at national and provincial scales, along with the changes in driving speed distribution and the percentage of speeding violations. The studied period includes four months in two consecutive years. Data was collected from more than 2400 loop detectors placed on the roads of 31 provinces of Iran. This data is used for implementing Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) on traffic volume and speeding violation percentage. Statistical measures of speed distribution are also used to examine changes in driving speed. According to the literature, the optimal driving speed for fuel consumption is about 50 to 70 km/h. This study showed a 7.4% increase in the probability of driving in the 50 to 70 km/h range after the price increase. Also, according to research results, the volume of intercity traffic and the percentage of speeding violations has decreased due to the rise in gasoline price.

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用回归不连续设计分析汽油价格变动对全国出行需求和驾驶员行为的影响

汽油是当今社会的基本商品之一，其价格可以影响公民生活的各个方面。本文研究了汽油价格突然上涨对全国和省域城际交通量的影响，以及车速分布和超速违规率的变化。研究期间为连续两年四个月。数据是从安装在伊朗31个省道路上的2400多个环路探测器收集的。该数据用于实现交通量和超速违章率的回归不连续设计(RDD)。速度分布的统计方法也用于检查驾驶速度的变化。根据文献，油耗的最佳行驶速度约为50 ~ 70 km/h。这项研究表明，价格上涨后，以50至70公里/小时的速度行驶的可能性增加了7.4%。此外，根据研究结果，由于汽油价格的上涨，城际交通量和超速违规率也有所下降。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Scientia Iranica 工程技术-工程：综合

CiteScore

2.90

自引率

7.10%

发文量

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： The objectives of Scientia Iranica are two-fold. The first is to provide a forum for the presentation of original works by scientists and engineers from around the world. The second is to open an effective channel to enhance the level of communication between scientists and engineers and the exchange of state-of-the-art research and ideas. The scope of the journal is broad and multidisciplinary in technical sciences and engineering. It encompasses theoretical and experimental research. Specific areas include but not limited to chemistry, chemical engineering, civil engineering, control and computer engineering, electrical engineering, material, manufacturing and industrial management, mathematics, mechanical engineering, nuclear engineering, petroleum engineering, physics, nanotechnology.