The lasting impact of external shocks on political opinions and populist voting

Abstract

We use electoral survey data linked to disaggregated geographical data to examine the impact that two external shocks had on the initial development and long-term success of New Zealand First (NZF), one of the oldest populist parties in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, as well as their short and long-run impact on voting and political opinions. We find that people exposed to both structural and immigration reforms were more likely to initially vote for NZF and permanently changed their political attitudes and policy preferences. Exposure to these shocks plays an important role in explaining the rise and continued success of populism in New Zealand.