Assessing the predictive performance of creep models using absolute rather than squared prediction errors: an application to 2.25Cr-1Mo steel and 316H stainless steel

IF 1 4区材料科学 Q4 MATERIALS SCIENCE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Materials at High Temperatures Pub Date : 2023-10-16 DOI:10.1080/09603409.2023.2268332

Mark Evans

引用次数: 0

Abstract

A reliable means of assessing the accuracy of a creep model’s predictions is fundamental to safe power plant operation. This paper introduces a method of decomposing the mean absolute prediction error for such a purpose to overcome the limitations that are inherent in the traditional approach of squaring prediction errors to prevent over and underestimates of life offsetting each other. When this method is applied to 2.25Cr-1Mo steel and 316 H stainless steel, it was found that squared errors leads to overestimates of the average prediction error associated with a particular creep model, and it also dramatically underestimates the proportion of this error that is systematic in nature. These differences were more noticeable for 316 H stainless steel.

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使用绝对而非平方预测误差评估蠕变模型的预测性能:2.25Cr-1Mo钢和316H不锈钢的应用

一种可靠的方法来评估蠕变模型预测的准确性是电厂安全运行的基础。本文介绍了一种分解平均绝对预测误差的方法，以克服传统预测误差平方方法固有的局限性，以防止寿命的高估和低估相互抵消。当将该方法应用于2.25Cr-1Mo钢和316 H不锈钢时，发现平方误差导致与特定蠕变模型相关的平均预测误差过高，并且严重低估了该误差在系统性质上的比例。这些差异在316h不锈钢中更为明显。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Materials at High Temperatures 工程技术-材料科学：综合

CiteScore

1.90

自引率

15.40%

发文量

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： Materials at High Temperatures welcomes contributions relating to high temperature applications in the energy generation, aerospace, chemical and process industries. The effects of high temperatures and extreme environments on the corrosion and oxidation, fatigue, creep, strength and wear of metallic alloys, ceramics, intermetallics, and refractory and composite materials relative to these industries are covered. Papers on the modelling of behaviour and life prediction are also welcome, provided these are validated by experimental data and explicitly linked to actual or potential applications. Contributions addressing the needs of designers and engineers (e.g. standards and codes of practice) relative to the areas of interest of this journal also fall within the scope. The term ''high temperatures'' refers to the subsequent temperatures of application and not, for example, to those of processing itself. Materials at High Temperatures publishes regular thematic issues on topics of current interest. Proposals for issues are welcomed; please contact one of the Editors with details.