Analyzing Pedestrian Fatality Risk in a Developing Country: Empirical Assessment with Insights from Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

Abstract

Pedestrian safety is a critical societal concern, especially in low-income countries, as pedestrian crashes increase worldwide. Among other road users, pedestrians are most vulnerable to severe injury and mortality in traffic crashes. Several studies have examined factors associated with the severity of pedestrian crashes in developed countries. However, there are limited comprehensive studies on pedestrian safety in low-income countries. Therefore, this study explored factors influencing the severity of pedestrian crashes in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, using a Bayesian logit model. The analysis involved 1,711 pedestrian crashes collected manually from the police logbook from 2015 through 2021. The results showed that young pedestrians (35 years and younger) are likely to sustain fatal injuries when involved in a crash. A higher fatality risk was also observed for pedestrian–vehicle crashes that occurred during winter and on streets. Crashes occurring at locations with wider medians and involving older pedestrians (55+) had a lower probability of a fatality. Identifying these risk factors for pedestrians provides valuable inputs that will assist with developing a comprehensive pedestrian safety action plan.