Argument evaluation and production in the correction of political innumeracy

IF 2.5 3区 心理学 Q2 PSYCHOLOGY, EXPERIMENTAL
Martin Dockendorff, Hugo Mercier
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Abstract

AbstractThe public is largely innumerate, making systematic mistakes in estimating some politically relevant facts, such as the share of foreign-born citizens. In two-step or multistep flow models, such mistakes could be corrected if better-informed citizens were able to convince their peers, in particular by using good arguments citing reliable sources. In six experiments, we find two issues that dampen the potential power of this two-step flow process. First, even though participants were more convinced by good than by poor arguments, many did not change their minds, even when confronted with good arguments. Second, participants are not inclined to spontaneously generate arguments that cite reliable sources, even when they have just been influenced by such arguments. Both issues should put a significant brake in the spread of political numeracy through the two-step flow process, in particular in non-dialogic contexts.Keywords: Political numeracytwo-step flowargument evaluationargument productionargument transmission AcknowledgementsThis work was supported by the French National Research Agency (ANR) under grants ANR-17-EURE-0017 FrontCog and ANR-10-IDEX-0001-02 PSL. We thank John Sides for providing constructive comments on earlier versions of this paper.Disclosure statementThe authors report there are no competing interests to declare.Notes1 All Experiments were conducted between Fall 2016 and Summer 2017.2 The distribution is thus far from being normal. However, since t-tests are very robust against non-normality, we have relied on them rather than on Wilcoxon tests (Rasch & Guiard, Citation2004). The same analyses using Wilcoxon signed-rank test can be found in the ESM.Additional informationFundingThis work was supported by the French National Research Agency (ANR) under grants ANR-17-EURE-0017 FrontCog and ANR-10-IDEX-0001-02 PSL.
政治数学盲纠偏中的论证评价与生成
摘要公众在很大程度上是不懂数学的,在估计一些政治相关事实(如外国出生公民的比例)时犯了系统性错误。在两步或多步流动模型中,如果消息灵通的公民能够说服他们的同伴,特别是通过引用可靠来源的有力论据,这些错误就可以得到纠正。在六个实验中,我们发现两个问题抑制了这两步流程的潜在力量。首先,尽管参与者更相信好的论点而不是糟糕的论点,但即使面对好的论点,许多人也不会改变主意。其次,参与者不倾向于自发地提出引用可靠来源的论点,即使他们刚刚受到这些论点的影响。这两个问题都应该通过两步流动进程,特别是在非对话的情况下,对政治计算能力的传播起到重要的抑制作用。本文由法国国家研究机构(ANR)资助,项目编号为ANR-17- eure -0017 FrontCog和ANR-10- idex -0001-02 PSL。我们感谢John Sides对本文早期版本提供的建设性意见。作者报告无利益竞争需要申报。注1所有实验都是在2016年秋季到2017年夏季之间进行的。7.2因此,分布远非正态分布。然而,由于t检验对非正态性非常稳健,我们依赖于它们而不是Wilcoxon检验(Rasch & guard, Citation2004)。在ESM中可以找到使用Wilcoxon符号秩检验的相同分析。本研究由法国国家研究机构(ANR)资助,ANR-17- eure -0017 FrontCog和ANR-10- idex -0001-02 PSL。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Thinking & Reasoning
Thinking & Reasoning PSYCHOLOGY, EXPERIMENTAL-
CiteScore
6.50
自引率
11.50%
发文量
25
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