Long-Term Rainfall Variability and Trends for Climate Risk Management in the Summer Monsoon Region of Southeast Asia

IF 2.1 4区地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Advances in Meteorology Pub Date : 2023-10-16 DOI:10.1155/2023/2693008

Mahesh Edirisinghe, Niranga Alahacoon, Manjula Ranagalage, Yuji Murayama

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Abstract

This study presents an analysis of long-term rainfall variability and trends in the summer monsoon region of Southeast Asia, encompassing Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR), Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, and Myanmar, as well as their respective river basins. Utilizing Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station Data (CHIRPS) having a spatial resolution of 5 km spanning from 1981 to 2021, rainfall variability and trends were examined. Data preprocessing and geospatial analysis were conducted using R-Studio and ArcGIS software. The Mann–Kendall (MK) test and Sen’s slope estimator were employed for annual and seasonal rainfall trend analysis. Myanmar exhibited the highest average annual rainfall of 2137 mm during the study period, while Thailand had the lowest (1641 mm). Over the past four decades, the Peninsula Malaysian Basin experienced the highest average annual rainfall (2691 mm), whereas the Chao Praya Basin recorded the lowest (1311 mm). Increasing trends in rainfall were observed across all five countries and nine major river basins. Vietnam displayed the highest annual rainfall trend of 5.63 mm/year, while Lao PDR exhibited the lowest trend (3.16 mm/year). Among the river basins, the Chao Phraya Basin demonstrated the maximum annual rainfall trend (11.21 mm/year), while the Peninsula Malaysia Basin had the minimum trend (1.21 mm/year). These findings could significantly contribute to climate change monitoring in the region and can aid policymakers in sectors such as agriculture, urban planning, and disaster management.

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东南亚夏季风区的长期降雨变率和气候风险管理趋势

本研究分析了东南亚夏季风区的长期降水变化和趋势，包括老挝人民民主共和国、泰国、越南、柬埔寨和缅甸及其各自的河流流域。利用空间分辨率为5 km的CHIRPS(气候灾害组红外降水)，分析了1981 - 2021年的降水变率和趋势。采用R-Studio和ArcGIS软件对数据进行预处理和地理空间分析。采用Mann-Kendall (MK)检验和Sen’s斜率估计法对年、季降水趋势进行分析。研究期间，缅甸年平均降雨量最高，为2137 mm，泰国最低，为1641 mm。在过去的40年里，马来西亚半岛盆地的年平均降雨量最高(2691毫米)，而湄南河流域的年平均降雨量最低(1311毫米)。在所有五个国家和九个主要河流流域都观察到降雨量增加的趋势。越南的年降雨量趋势最高，为5.63 mm/年，老挝的年降雨量趋势最低，为3.16 mm/年。其中，湄南河流域年降水量趋势最大(11.21 mm/年)，马来西亚半岛流域年降水量趋势最小(1.21 mm/年)。这些发现可以为该地区的气候变化监测做出重大贡献，并可以为农业、城市规划和灾害管理等部门的决策者提供帮助。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Advances in Meteorology 地学天文-气象与大气科学

CiteScore

5.30

自引率

3.40%

发文量

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： Advances in Meteorology is a peer-reviewed, Open Access journal that publishes original research articles as well as review articles in all areas of meteorology and climatology. Topics covered include, but are not limited to, forecasting techniques and applications, meteorological modeling, data analysis, atmospheric chemistry and physics, climate change, satellite meteorology, marine meteorology, and forest meteorology.