An approach to forecasting macro indicators in Russia

Abstract

Methods of forecasting macro indicators are studied in the work. Their diversity and groups of regressors used for prognostic purposes are shown. The influence of behavioral factors on the size of the predicted macro–indicator — GDP is substantiated. It is proved that the impact of the expectation of changes by business in the next three months and production costs on GDP. A regression model is proposed that allows us to promptly take into account business sentiment when forecasting GDP, which will allow us to more accurately predict the dynamics of its changes.