Examining the Impact of Hysteresis on the Projected Adoption of Autonomous Vehicles

IF 0.8 4区工程技术 Q4 TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY

Promet-Traffic & Transportation Pub Date : 2023-10-30 DOI:10.7307/ptt.v35i5.278

Anas Alatawneh, Adam Torok

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

This study explores the potential impact of per capita gross domestic product (GDP) changes on the adoption of autonomous vehicles (AVs). The level of adoption of AVs is anticipated to influence the benefits of future mobility, prompting numerous studies that forecast the market share of AVs using various methods. The influence of changes in the per capita GDP on vehicle ownership is crucial in assessing the challenges associated with reducing dependence on AVs in the future. This phenomenon, known as the hysteresis effect, implies that AV adoption estimates may differ when the GDP is rising as opposed to when it is falling. This research examines the effect of rising and falling GDP per capita on the anticipated AV diffusion in Hungary, utilising a scenario-based method to account for the variation in adoption rates in the literature. The study findings indicate that declines in GDP in the past will impact AV ownership, leading to a shift in future adoption patterns. The AV market is projected to reach saturation in the 2070s and the 2090s in favourable and moderate scenarios, respectively, while a pessimistic state would delay this outcome until after the year 2100.

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研究迟滞对自动驾驶汽车预计采用的影响

本研究探讨了人均国内生产总值(GDP)变化对自动驾驶汽车(AVs)采用的潜在影响。预计自动驾驶汽车的采用水平将影响未来移动出行的好处，促使许多研究使用各种方法预测自动驾驶汽车的市场份额。在评估未来减少对自动驾驶汽车依赖的挑战时，人均GDP变化对汽车拥有量的影响至关重要。这种现象被称为滞后效应，它意味着当GDP上升与下降时，自动驾驶汽车的普及率估计可能会有所不同。本研究考察了匈牙利人均GDP的上升和下降对预期AV扩散的影响，利用基于场景的方法来解释文献中采用率的变化。研究结果表明，过去GDP的下降将影响自动驾驶汽车拥有量，从而导致未来采用模式的转变。在有利和温和的情况下，自动驾驶汽车市场预计将分别在2070年代和2090年代达到饱和，而悲观的情况将把这一结果推迟到2100年之后。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Promet-Traffic & Transportation 工程技术-运输科技

CiteScore

1.90

自引率

20.00%

发文量

审稿时长

3 months

期刊介绍： This scientific journal publishes scientific papers in the area of technical sciences, field of transport and traffic technology. The basic guidelines of the journal, which support the mission - promotion of transport science, are: relevancy of published papers and reviewer competency, established identity in the print and publishing profile, as well as other formal and informal details. The journal organisation consists of the Editorial Board, Editors, Reviewer Selection Committee and the Scientific Advisory Committee. The received papers are subject to peer review in accordance with the recommendations for international scientific journals. The papers published in the journal are placed in sections which explain their focus in more detail. The sections are: transportation economy, information and communication technology, intelligent transport systems, human-transport interaction, intermodal transport, education in traffic and transport, traffic planning, traffic and environment (ecology), traffic on motorways, traffic in the cities, transport and sustainable development, traffic and space, traffic infrastructure, traffic policy, transport engineering, transport law, safety and security in traffic, transport logistics, transport technology, transport telematics, internal transport, traffic management, science in traffic and transport, traffic engineering, transport in emergency situations, swarm intelligence in transportation engineering. The Journal also publishes information not subject to review, and classified under the following headings: book and other reviews, symposia, conferences and exhibitions, scientific cooperation, anniversaries, portraits, bibliographies, publisher information, news, etc.