Trend assessment of changing climate patterns over the major agro-climatic zones of Sindh and Punjab

IF 2.6 Q2 WATER RESOURCES
Haris Uddin Qureshi, Syed Muzzamil Hussain Shah, Fang Yenn Teo
{"title":"Trend assessment of changing climate patterns over the major agro-climatic zones of Sindh and Punjab","authors":"Haris Uddin Qureshi, Syed Muzzamil Hussain Shah, Fang Yenn Teo","doi":"10.3389/frwa.2023.1194540","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The agriculture sector, due to its significant dependence on climate patterns and water availability, is highly vulnerable to changing climate patterns. Pakistan is an agrarian economy with 30% of its land area under cultivation and 93% of its water resources being utilized for agricultural production. Therefore, the changing climate patterns may adversely affect the agriculture and water resources of the country. This study was conducted to assess the climate variations over the major agro-climatic zones of Sindh and Punjab, which serve as an important hub for the production of major food and cash crops in Pakistan. For this purpose, the climate data of 21 stations were analyzed using the Mann–Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator method for the period 1990–2022. The results obtained from the analysis revealed that, in Sindh, the mean annual temperature rose by ~0.1 to 1.4°C, with ~0.1 to 1.2°C in cotton-wheat Sindh and 0.8 to 1.4°C in rice-other Sindh during the study period. Similarly, in Punjab, the mean annual temperature increased by ~0.1 to 1.0°C, with 0.6 to 0.9°C in cotton-wheat Punjab and 0.2 to 0.6°C in rainfed Punjab. Seasonally, warming was found to be highest during the spring season. The precipitation analysis showed a rising annual precipitation trend in Sindh (+30 to +60 mm) and Punjab (+100 to 300 mm), while the monsoon precipitation increased by ~50 to 200 mm. For winter precipitation, an upward trend was found in mixed Punjab, while the remaining stations showed a declining pattern. Conclusively, the warming temperatures as found in the analysis may result in increased irrigation requirements, soil moisture desiccation, and wilting of crops, ultimately leading to low crop yield and threatening the livelihoods of local farmers. On the other hand, the increasing precipitation may favor national agriculture in terms of less freshwater withdrawals. However, it may also result in increased rainfall-induced floods inundating the crop fields and causing water logging and soil salinization. The study outcomes comprehensively highlighted the prevailing climate trends over the important agro-climatic zones of Pakistan, which may aid in devising an effective climate change adaptation and mitigation strategy to ensure the state of water and food security in the country.","PeriodicalId":33801,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Water","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6000,"publicationDate":"2023-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Frontiers in Water","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.3389/frwa.2023.1194540","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"WATER RESOURCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

Abstract

The agriculture sector, due to its significant dependence on climate patterns and water availability, is highly vulnerable to changing climate patterns. Pakistan is an agrarian economy with 30% of its land area under cultivation and 93% of its water resources being utilized for agricultural production. Therefore, the changing climate patterns may adversely affect the agriculture and water resources of the country. This study was conducted to assess the climate variations over the major agro-climatic zones of Sindh and Punjab, which serve as an important hub for the production of major food and cash crops in Pakistan. For this purpose, the climate data of 21 stations were analyzed using the Mann–Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator method for the period 1990–2022. The results obtained from the analysis revealed that, in Sindh, the mean annual temperature rose by ~0.1 to 1.4°C, with ~0.1 to 1.2°C in cotton-wheat Sindh and 0.8 to 1.4°C in rice-other Sindh during the study period. Similarly, in Punjab, the mean annual temperature increased by ~0.1 to 1.0°C, with 0.6 to 0.9°C in cotton-wheat Punjab and 0.2 to 0.6°C in rainfed Punjab. Seasonally, warming was found to be highest during the spring season. The precipitation analysis showed a rising annual precipitation trend in Sindh (+30 to +60 mm) and Punjab (+100 to 300 mm), while the monsoon precipitation increased by ~50 to 200 mm. For winter precipitation, an upward trend was found in mixed Punjab, while the remaining stations showed a declining pattern. Conclusively, the warming temperatures as found in the analysis may result in increased irrigation requirements, soil moisture desiccation, and wilting of crops, ultimately leading to low crop yield and threatening the livelihoods of local farmers. On the other hand, the increasing precipitation may favor national agriculture in terms of less freshwater withdrawals. However, it may also result in increased rainfall-induced floods inundating the crop fields and causing water logging and soil salinization. The study outcomes comprehensively highlighted the prevailing climate trends over the important agro-climatic zones of Pakistan, which may aid in devising an effective climate change adaptation and mitigation strategy to ensure the state of water and food security in the country.
信德省和旁遮普省主要农业气候带气候模式变化趋势评估
农业部门由于严重依赖气候模式和水资源供应,极易受到气候模式变化的影响。巴基斯坦是一个农业经济国家,30%的土地面积用于耕种,93%的水资源用于农业生产。因此,不断变化的气候模式可能对该国的农业和水资源产生不利影响。本研究旨在评估信德省和旁遮普省主要农业气候带的气候变化,这两个地区是巴基斯坦主要粮食和经济作物生产的重要枢纽。为此,采用Mann-Kendall检验和Sen’s斜率估计法对21个台站1990-2022年的气候数据进行了分析。分析结果表明,在研究期间,信德省年平均气温上升~0.1 ~ 1.4℃,棉麦种植区气温上升~0.1 ~ 1.2℃,水稻种植区气温上升0.8 ~ 1.4℃。同样,在旁遮普省,年平均气温上升了~0.1 ~ 1.0℃,棉麦区上升了0.6 ~ 0.9℃,雨养区上升了0.2 ~ 0.6℃。从季节上看,春季变暖幅度最大。降水分析显示,信德省(+30 ~ +60 mm)和旁遮普省(+100 ~ 300 mm)年降水量呈上升趋势,季风降水增加~50 ~ 200 mm。冬季降水以旁遮普混合站呈上升趋势,其余站呈下降趋势。最后,分析中发现的变暖温度可能导致灌溉需求增加,土壤水分干燥和作物枯萎,最终导致作物减产并威胁到当地农民的生计。另一方面,降水的增加可能有利于国家农业,减少淡水提取。然而,它也可能导致降雨引起的洪水增加,淹没农田,造成内涝和土壤盐碱化。研究结果全面强调了巴基斯坦重要农业气候带的普遍气候趋势,这可能有助于制定有效的气候变化适应和缓解战略,以确保该国的水和粮食安全状况。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
求助全文
约1分钟内获得全文 求助全文
来源期刊
Frontiers in Water
Frontiers in Water WATER RESOURCES-
CiteScore
4.00
自引率
6.90%
发文量
224
审稿时长
13 weeks
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信