Balancing the scales: Does public debt and energy poverty mitigate or exacerbate ecological distortions in Nigeria?

Abstract

Abstract Amid Nigeria's economic growth and energy challenges, the escalating public debt (PB) levels and persistent energy poverty (EP) raise critical questions about their potential impacts on the environment. Given the potential conflict among economic development, EP alleviation and ecological conservation, it becomes pertinent to understand whether increased PB and efforts to address EP inadvertently contribute to or alleviate ecological imbalances within the country. Hence, this research investigates the effect of PB and EP on the load capacity factor (LCF) in Nigeria. Using the STIRPAT model and annual data from 1990 to 2021, the study explores the relationships among total PB, EP, gross domestic product per capita, urbanization and LCF. Descriptive analysis, correlation assessments and unit‐root tests precede the data analysis conducted with the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and dynamic ARDL (DARDL) technique. Key findings reveal significant negative effects of urbanization and EP on LCF. Additionally, the ARDL and DARDL procedure highlights a positive long‐term relationship between PB and LCF. Both ARDL and DARDL analyses show a negative short‐term relationship between GDP growth per capita and LCF, signalling the need for sustainable economic practices. The study concludes with policy recommendations that aim to promote sustainable development and address ecological imbalances by tackling EP and PB challenges in Nigeria.