Optimal Size of Türkiye’s Growing City: Tekirdağ

Abstract

Migration from rural areas to cities is increasing day by day as cities offer more opportunities in terms of education, employment and health. According to 2022 TURKSTAT data, around 68% of the population in Turkiye resides in cities. Total urban population worldwide is expected to reach 4.9 billion by 2030 and 68% of the world population to live in cities by 2050 (PRB, 2007 & UN, 2017). Hence, it is predicted that uncontrolled population growth, especially in cities, will render resources insufficient and necessitates optimal city size measurements for sustainable development. In this study, the optimal city size is examined for Tekirdağ, as one of the cities in Turkiye that is exposed to irregular migration inflows and having the highest population growth rate in the recent years. This study applies the happiness degree model to estimate the optimal city size for Tekirdağ utilizing several resource indicators for the years 2018 and 2021. It is argued that the resources of the city will be depleted and therefore the happiness level of the residents will decline should this trend continues. According to 2022 statistics, it is concluded that the city is observed to be overpopulated for Tekirdağ, which has a population of over one million.