Bringing Household Finance Back In: House Prices and the Missing Macroeconomics of Comparative Political Economy

IF 4.1 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Politics & Society Pub Date : 2023-10-17 DOI:10.1177/00323292231201480

James D. G. Wood, Engelbert Stockhammer

引用次数: 0

Abstract

This article makes a key contribution to the comparative political economy literature by accounting for the macroeconomic role of household finance. Based on post-Keynesian theories of finance and the financialization literature, we place house prices and mortgage credit squarely at the center of the macroeconomy, as speculative house price cycles can facilitate homeowner consumption via the use of equity release mortgages. Through an econometric evaluation of eighteen advanced economies from 1980 to 2019, we demonstrate that household debt is determined by house price inflation, and that rising household debt contributes to GDP growth, while business debt has negative growth effects. These results are consistent across countries with different growth models and financial systems. This suggests that the varieties of capitalism's focus on corporate finance is misplaced and that the growth models approach needs a theory of house prices, mortgage credit, and financial cycles to adequately conceptualize how debt-driven growth operates across advanced economies.

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回归家庭金融:房价与比较政治经济学中缺失的宏观经济学

本文通过计算家庭金融的宏观经济作用，对比较政治经济学文献做出了重要贡献。基于后凯恩斯主义的金融理论和金融化文献，我们将房价和抵押贷款信贷直接置于宏观经济的中心，因为投机性房价周期可以通过使用股权释放抵押贷款来促进房主的消费。通过对1980年至2019年18个发达经济体的计量经济评估，我们证明家庭债务是由房价通胀决定的，并且家庭债务的上升有助于GDP增长，而企业债务则具有负增长效应。这些结果在不同增长模式和金融体系的国家是一致的。这表明，资本主义对企业融资的各种关注是错误的，增长模型方法需要一个关于房价、抵押信贷和金融周期的理论，以充分概念化债务驱动的增长如何在发达经济体中运作。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Politics & Society Multiple-

CiteScore

5.00

自引率

4.20%

发文量

期刊介绍： Politics & Society is a peer-reviewed journal. All submitted papers are read by a rotating editorial board member. If a paper is deemed potentially publishable, it is sent to another board member, who, if agreeing that it is potentially publishable, sends it to a third board member. If and only if all three agree, the paper is sent to the entire editorial board for consideration at board meetings. The editorial board meets three times a year, and the board members who are present (usually between 9 and 14) make decisions through a deliberative process that also considers written reports from absent members. Unlike many journals which rely on 1–3 individual blind referee reports and a single editor with final say, the peers who decide whether to accept submitted work are thus the full editorial board of the journal, comprised of scholars from various disciplines, who discuss papers openly, with author names known, at meetings. Editors are required to disclose potential conflicts of interest when evaluating manuscripts and to recuse themselves from voting if such a potential exists.