Election forecasting in the Caribbean: Evidence from Jamaica 2015–2020

Abstract

ABSTRACTThis study looks at election forecasting in Jamaica. The first Caribbean election forecast, recorded, was the inaccurate 1962 poll that stated that the PNP would win the referendum and Jamaica would remain in the regional federation. Polling lost credibility until Carl Stone restarted the practice in 1972. Stone accurately predicted the 1976, 1980 and 1989 general elections, unlike rival pollsters. Polling floundered in Jamaica after Stone died. Don Anderson, subsequently, became the most respected pollster. Selwyn Ryan and other pollsters worked in the eastern Caribbean. Caribbean politicians have recruited pollsters from outside their countries because of fears of partisan bias. Statistical models are a very useful complement to polls. I used the CHAMPSKNOW system to forecast the 2016 General Election, but the forecast was inaccurate. I used three logistic regression models to accurately forecast the 2020 General Election. Election forcasting in the Caribbean can be improved by using panel data.KEYWORDS: Political forecastingCaribbeanJamaicamodelspolls AcknowledgementsThis paper is dedicated to the memory of the late Carl Stone, professor of political sociology and pollster par excellence of the University of the West Indies, Mona Campus. I would like to thank Nadine McCloud-Rose and Herbert Gayle of the University of the West Indies, Mona for their suggestions and clarifying discussions over the years that have advanced my work in political forecasting. Thanks also to the referees whose comments and suggestions significantly improved the paper. I take full responsibility for all weaknesses in this paper. Correspondence: concerning this article should be addressed to Christopher A.D. Charles, Professor of Political and Social Psychology, Department of Government, University of the West Indies, Mona, Kingston 7, Jamaica. Email: christopher.charles02@uwimona.edu.jmDisclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1 Two of my political science professors at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York, political psychologist Stanley Renshon, and the late Asher Arian who also taught and conducted public opinion surveys in Israel, spoke highly of Professor Carl Stone, and were impressed by the accuracy of his pre-election polls.2 Don Anderson of Market Research Limited has stated publicly that it was the late JLP leader and former prime minister of Jamaica, Edward Seaga, who encouraged him to become a pollster.3 Details of LAPOP’s core project, the Americas Barometer, and their publications can be found at: https://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop.4 A jack-knife resampling was conducted, in that the forecast year (2020) was removed from the data for estimation and forecasting (cross validation).