A Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator-Derived Predictive Model for Postoperative Respiratory Failure in a Heterogeneous Adult Elective Surgery Patient Population

Abstract

Background

Postoperative respiratory failure (PRF) is associated with increased hospital charges and worse patient outcomes. Reliable prediction models can help to guide postoperative planning to optimize care, to guide resource allocation, and to foster shared decision-making with patients.

Research Question

Can a predictive model be developed to accurately identify patients at high risk of PRF?

Study Design and Methods

In this single-site proof-of-concept study, we used structured query language to extract, transform, and load electronic health record data from 23,999 consecutive adult patients admitted for elective surgery (2014-2021). Our primary outcome was PRF, defined as mechanical ventilation after surgery of > 48 h. Predictors of interest included demographics, comorbidities, and intraoperative factors. We used logistic regression to build a predictive model and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator procedure to select variables and to estimate model coefficients. We evaluated model performance using optimism-corrected area under the receiver operating curve and area under the precision-recall curve and calculated sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and Brier scores.

Results

Two hundred twenty-five patients (0.94%) demonstrated PRF. The 18-variable predictive model included: operations on the cardiovascular, nervous, digestive, urinary, or musculoskeletal system; surgical specialty orthopedic (nonspine); Medicare or Medicaid (as the primary payer); race unknown; American Society of Anesthesiologists class ≥ III; BMI of 30 to 34.9 kg/m²; anesthesia duration (per hour); net fluid at end of the operation (per liter); median intraoperative Fio₂, end title CO₂, heart rate, and tidal volume; and intraoperative vasopressor medications. The optimism-corrected area under the receiver operating curve was 0.835 (95% CI, 0.808-0.862) and the area under the precision-recall curve was 0.156 (95% CI, 0.105-0.203).

Interpretation

This single-center proof-of-concept study demonstrated that a structured query language extract, transform, and load process, based on readily available patient and intraoperative variables, can be used to develop a prediction model for PRF. This PRF prediction model is scalable for multicenter research. Clinical applications include decision support to guide postoperative level of care admission and treatment decisions.