Future photovoltaic solar power resources in Zambia: a CORDEX-CORE multi-model synthesis

IF 1.9 4区地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics Pub Date : 2023-09-23 DOI:10.1007/s00703-023-00990-1

Brigadier Libanda, Heiko Paeth

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Abstract

Abstract The exploration of renewable energy such as wind and solar radiation has the potential of reducing reliance on fossil fuels, thus cutting emissions of carbon dioxide, particulate matter, and several other greenhouse gasses. However, recent findings indicate that wind speed across Zambia is very slow, it is increasing but remains unlikely to support large commercial wind farms. In this study, we explore the future impacts of climate change on solar photovoltaic resources. To do this, we examine the new high-resolution (25 km) Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment—CORDEX-CORE simulations for the African domain, using two different emission scenarios until 2100. At an annual scale, results indicate a weak but steady decrease in PV Res of around 0.02 W/m 2 per annum under RCP2.6 and about 0.005 W/m 2 per annum under RCP8.5. Results further show that at an average of ~ 237 ± 3.3 W/m 2 and 212 ± 2.5 W/m 2 , respectively, RCP2.6 comes along with 12 ± 3% more PV Res than RCP8.5. Thus RCP2.6, a greener and climate-friendly pathway, points towards a higher renewable energy potential across Zambia compared to the business-as-usual pathway.

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赞比亚未来的光伏太阳能发电资源:CORDEX-CORE多模型综合

风能和太阳辐射等可再生能源的开发有可能减少对化石燃料的依赖，从而减少二氧化碳、颗粒物和其他几种温室气体的排放。然而，最近的研究结果表明，赞比亚的风速非常慢，虽然正在增加，但仍然不太可能支持大型商业风力发电场。在本研究中，我们探讨了未来气候变化对太阳能光伏资源的影响。为此，我们研究了非洲地区新的高分辨率(25公里)协调区域气候降尺度实验- cordex - core模拟，使用了两种不同的排放情景，直到2100年。在年尺度上，RCP2.6和RCP8.5分别以每年约0.005 W/m 2和每年约0.02 W/m 2的速度缓慢而稳定地降低PV Res。结果进一步表明，在平均~ 237±3.3 W/ m2和212±2.5 W/ m2下，RCP2.6比RCP8.5高出12±3%的PV Res。因此，RCP2.6是一条更加绿色和气候友好的道路，与一切照旧的道路相比，它指向了赞比亚更高的可再生能源潜力。

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来源期刊

Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 地学-气象与大气科学

CiteScore

4.00

自引率

5.00%

发文量

审稿时长

6-12 weeks

期刊介绍： Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics accepts original research papers for publication following the recommendations of a review panel. The emphasis lies with the following topic areas: - atmospheric dynamics and general circulation; - synoptic meteorology; - weather systems in specific regions, such as the tropics, the polar caps, the oceans; - atmospheric energetics; - numerical modeling and forecasting; - physical and chemical processes in the atmosphere, including radiation, optical effects, electricity, and atmospheric turbulence and transport processes; - mathematical and statistical techniques applied to meteorological data sets Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics discusses physical and chemical processes - in both clear and cloudy atmospheres - including radiation, optical and electrical effects, precipitation and cloud microphysics.