In Memory of Leif Johansen: The World’s First CGE Model and Its Application to Russia

IF 0.4 Q4 ECONOMICS
Vladimir V. Sedalishchev
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Perhaps the best way to honor Leif Johansen’s legacy as a theorist on the fortieth anniversary of his death is to show that his ideas are still pertinent and able to inspire new research. This paper adapts the world’s first CGE model for MSG, which he created in the late 1950s, to current Russian statistics. The CGE model has been used to calculate the consequences to be anticipated from two groups of scenarios: 1) accession to Russia of four new regions in 2022; and 2) a complete trade blockade of Russia due to exacerbation of the crisis in Ukraine. During preparation of the input data, balancing of the input-output tables was achieved by developing an algorithm based on a certain discrete analog of the elastic filter algorithm. This approach can also be used to prepare input data for other single-region CGE models. The version of MSG that was constructed for Russia can be used for teaching university students, as a BOTE model, or for debugging more complex CGE models, or as an auxiliary tool for estimating import substitution frontiers, country production frontiers or various structural parameters of CGE models. Despite the more than six decades that have passed since its inception, the MSG model still does not look outdated in essence and contains some elements that are sometimes undeservedly overlooked in a number of modern CGE models.
纪念Leif Johansen:世界上第一个CGE模型及其在俄罗斯的应用
在雷夫·约翰森逝世40周年之际,纪念他作为理论家的遗产的最好方式,或许是表明他的思想仍然是有意义的,能够激发新的研究。本文将他在20世纪50年代末创建的世界上第一个MSG的CGE模型应用于当前的俄罗斯统计数据。CGE模型用于计算两组情景的预期后果:1)四个新地区在2022年加入俄罗斯;2)由于乌克兰危机的加剧,对俄罗斯进行全面的贸易封锁。在准备输入数据时,通过开发一种基于弹性滤波算法的某种离散模拟的算法来实现输入输出表的平衡。该方法也可用于准备其他单区域CGE模型的输入数据。为俄罗斯构建的MSG版本可以用于大学生教学,作为BOTE模型,或调试更复杂的CGE模型,或作为估计进口替代边界、国家生产边界或CGE模型的各种结构参数的辅助工具。尽管MSG模型已经诞生了60多年,但从本质上看,它仍然没有过时,它包含了一些在许多现代CGE模型中有时被不合理地忽视的元素。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
1.30
自引率
20.00%
发文量
0
期刊介绍: Ekonomicheskaya Politika is a broad-range economic journal devoted primarily to the study of the economic policy of present-day Russia as well as global economic problems. The subject matters of articles includes macroeconomic, fiscal, monetary, industrial, social, regulation and competition policyand more. The journal also publishes theoretical papers in such areas as political economy, general economic theory, welfare economics, law and economics,and institutional economics.. The character and the scope of economic problems studied in many publications require a multidisciplinary approach, consistent with the editorial policy of the journal. While the thematic scope of articles is generally related to Russia, the aim of editorial policy is to cover politico-economic processes in the modern world and international economic relations, as well. In addition, Ekonomicheskaya Politika publishes Russian translations of classical and significant modern works of foreign economists.
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