Don’t Look Up: House Prices in Emerging Europe

IF 16.4 1区化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2023-10-17 DOI:10.1515/ger-2023-0015

Serhan Cevik, Sadhna Naik

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Abstract This paper investigates how housing prices respond to economic, financial and demographic conditions in emerging markets in Europe. We use quarterly data covering 10 countries over the period 1998–2022 and implement a panel quantile regression approach to obtain a granular analysis of real estate markets. Overall, economic, financial and demographic developments explain real house price growth in emerging Europe, with income growth having the most significant impact. Quantile regression estimations show that income growth matters more for higher quantiles of the property market. We also find that an increase in short-term or long-term interest rates has a price-dampening impact, indicating that a higher cost of borrowing is associated with lower real house price growth. These results indicate that the downturn in house prices could deepen with the looming economic recession and soaring interest rates.

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不要抬头看:新兴欧洲的房价

摘要本文研究了欧洲新兴市场的房价如何对经济、金融和人口状况做出反应。我们使用涵盖1998-2022年期间10个国家的季度数据，并实施面板分位数回归方法来获得房地产市场的颗粒分析。总体而言，经济、金融和人口发展解释了欧洲新兴市场的实际房价增长，其中收入增长的影响最为显著。分位数回归估计显示，收入增长对房地产市场较高分位数的影响更大。我们还发现，短期或长期利率的增加对价格有抑制作用，这表明较高的借贷成本与较低的实际房价增长有关。这些结果表明，随着经济衰退的逼近和利率的飙升，房价的下滑可能会加剧。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合

CiteScore

31.40

自引率

1.10%

发文量

312

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.