{"title":"Unpacking the European Commission's fiscal policy response to crisis: mapping and explaining economic ideas in the European Semester 2011–2022","authors":"Rachel Graham, Martijn Schoonvelde, Marij Swinkels","doi":"10.1080/13501763.2023.2274347","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we examine how and why the European Commission's ideas on fiscal policy have changed over the course of the European Semester. Empirically, we rely on a semi-supervised scaling approach to identify economic ideas as they appear in Semester documents from the aftermath of the financial crisis onwards (2011-2022). Our findings demonstrate a gradual shift in ideas from an ordoliberal to a Keynesian direction, especially during the overlapping Von der Leyen and Covid-19 crisis years. We identify substantial country-specific differences throughout 2011–2022, with some countries receiving exclusively Keynesian recommendations, and others distinctively ordoliberal ones. These patterns can be explained in part by economic conditions in those member states but not by the public's trust in the EU. These results underscore the reactive nature of the Commission's economic ideology; crises, as well as member states’ economic conditions, shape the direction of its fiscal policy recommendations.","PeriodicalId":51362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of European Public Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.6000,"publicationDate":"2023-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of European Public Policy","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13501763.2023.2274347","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"POLITICAL SCIENCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
In this paper, we examine how and why the European Commission's ideas on fiscal policy have changed over the course of the European Semester. Empirically, we rely on a semi-supervised scaling approach to identify economic ideas as they appear in Semester documents from the aftermath of the financial crisis onwards (2011-2022). Our findings demonstrate a gradual shift in ideas from an ordoliberal to a Keynesian direction, especially during the overlapping Von der Leyen and Covid-19 crisis years. We identify substantial country-specific differences throughout 2011–2022, with some countries receiving exclusively Keynesian recommendations, and others distinctively ordoliberal ones. These patterns can be explained in part by economic conditions in those member states but not by the public's trust in the EU. These results underscore the reactive nature of the Commission's economic ideology; crises, as well as member states’ economic conditions, shape the direction of its fiscal policy recommendations.
期刊介绍:
The primary aim of the Journal of European Public Policy is to provide a comprehensive and definitive source of analytical, theoretical and methodological articles in the field of European public policy. Focusing on the dynamics of public policy in Europe, the journal encourages a wide range of social science approaches, both qualitative and quantitative. JEPP defines European public policy widely and welcomes innovative ideas and approaches. The main areas covered by the Journal are as follows: •Theoretical and methodological approaches to the study of public policy in Europe and elsewhere •National public policy developments and processes in Europe •Comparative studies of public policy within Europe