Unpacking the European Commission's fiscal policy response to crisis: mapping and explaining economic ideas in the European Semester 2011–2022

IF 4.6 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE
Rachel Graham, Martijn Schoonvelde, Marij Swinkels
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Abstract

In this paper, we examine how and why the European Commission's ideas on fiscal policy have changed over the course of the European Semester. Empirically, we rely on a semi-supervised scaling approach to identify economic ideas as they appear in Semester documents from the aftermath of the financial crisis onwards (2011-2022). Our findings demonstrate a gradual shift in ideas from an ordoliberal to a Keynesian direction, especially during the overlapping Von der Leyen and Covid-19 crisis years. We identify substantial country-specific differences throughout 2011–2022, with some countries receiving exclusively Keynesian recommendations, and others distinctively ordoliberal ones. These patterns can be explained in part by economic conditions in those member states but not by the public's trust in the EU. These results underscore the reactive nature of the Commission's economic ideology; crises, as well as member states’ economic conditions, shape the direction of its fiscal policy recommendations.
拆解欧盟委员会应对危机的财政政策:绘制和解释2011-2022年欧洲学期的经济思想
在本文中,我们研究了欧盟委员会关于财政政策的想法是如何以及为什么在欧洲学期的过程中发生变化的。从经验上看,我们依靠半监督缩放方法来识别金融危机之后(2011-2022年)学期文件中出现的经济思想。我们的研究结果表明,思想逐渐从自由主义转向凯恩斯主义,特别是在冯德莱恩和Covid-19危机重叠的年份。我们确定了2011-2022年期间各国之间存在的重大差异,一些国家只接受凯恩斯主义建议,而另一些国家则接受独特的自由主义建议。这些模式可以部分地用这些成员国的经济状况来解释,但不能用公众对欧盟的信任来解释。这些结果强调了委员会经济意识形态的被动性质;危机以及成员国的经济状况决定了其财政政策建议的方向。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
8.80
自引率
9.50%
发文量
83
期刊介绍: The primary aim of the Journal of European Public Policy is to provide a comprehensive and definitive source of analytical, theoretical and methodological articles in the field of European public policy. Focusing on the dynamics of public policy in Europe, the journal encourages a wide range of social science approaches, both qualitative and quantitative. JEPP defines European public policy widely and welcomes innovative ideas and approaches. The main areas covered by the Journal are as follows: •Theoretical and methodological approaches to the study of public policy in Europe and elsewhere •National public policy developments and processes in Europe •Comparative studies of public policy within Europe
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