Problems of power transmission accident rate (on example of JSC "Omskenergosbyt" )

Abstract

A study and analysis of electric power transmission through the JSC Omskenergosbyt electric networks over the period 2014 – 2022 have been carried out. The structural and balance features of the company are analyzed, the characteristics of the key elements of the studied electrical networks are given, with a number of shortcomings in the disclosure of information noted. Based on public information on the accident rate in the company's electrical networks, an estimate has been made of the number of emergency situations that occurred during the period under study, as well as the magnitude of electrical power under-supply caused by these interruptions. The classification of emergency damages according to the amount of electrical power under-supply as a result of these failures has been made. The percentages of such failures are determined. Various methods for predictive assessment of power supply reliability level in the company's networks are analyzed, and a conclusion is made about the applicability of predictive models of statistical methods. Autoregressive equations have been obtained, the analysis of which allowed to have numerical predictive values of the number of possible emergency failures broken down by months of 2023. The influence of the seasonal component on the number of emergencies during the period under study has beenis considered.General scientific methods, numerical methods of analysis, statistical and cybernetic methods of making predictive models were used in the study. Excel spreadsheet technologies, MATLAB software environment, as well as the Oracle software were used as computational tools. The results obtained may be of interest to chief executives of power grid companies , as well as researchers and engineers engaged in research in the field of power supply reliability.