Factor analysis of the housing market in Ukraine (2003–2023)

Alona SHMYGEL, Natalia SHULGA
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Abstract

The residential real estate market plays a key role in the development of global and national economies, since it has acted as a powerful driver of GDP growth, increasing the level of employment, household incomes, and profitability of financial institutions, construction organizations and trading enterprises. The house price growth has two dimensions, threat to financial stability and source of economic development. The aim of this research is to formulate a list of criteria, based on which one can decide whether the house price at a given stage of housing market development needs to be constrained or not. The aim is achieved by a multi-perspective analysis of residential real estate market in Ukraine and its evolution. This research is based on general scientific and special methods of cognition, including abstract logical reasoning, grouping, and statistical analysis. The factors that con­tribute to the growth of house prices are formed using the method of principal component analysis, and the effect is estimated using least squares regression. Five stages of the evolution of the Ukrainian residential real estate market are identified according to two general indicators: housing price growth and credit activity. The segmentation is based on signi­ficant changes in market conditions and/or changes in housing price drivers, as well as changes in the regulatory environment. Factors affecting house prices at each of these stages were investigated using principal component analysis to identify variables for regression analysis. A set of criteria has been formed using which one can assess if the current rise in housing prices poses systemic risks to the national financial system and overall economy. Three hypotheses were put forward and their empirical verification was carried out, according to the results of which it was established that demand factors had the greatest impact on housing prices during the observation period; macro-financial conditions primarily affect prices on the primary real estate market; lending conditions affect price dynamics mainly only at the first stage of development of the housing market in Ukraine, which are determined in this study. The main drivers of the housing market in Ukraine are the unemployment rate, income growth levels, and population size. The conclusions drawn can significantly contribute to the monitoring system of the housing market in Ukraine and the analysis of the systemic risks it generates.
乌克兰住房市场因素分析(2003-2023)
住宅房地产市场在全球和国家经济发展中发挥着关键作用,因为它是GDP增长的强大推动力,提高了就业水平,提高了家庭收入,提高了金融机构,建筑组织和贸易企业的盈利能力。房价上涨具有对金融稳定的威胁和经济发展的源泉两个维度。本研究的目的是制定一系列标准,根据这些标准,人们可以决定在住房市场发展的特定阶段,房价是否需要限制。目的是通过对乌克兰住宅房地产市场及其演变的多角度分析来实现。本研究以一般科学和特殊的认知方法为基础,包括抽象逻辑推理、分组和统计分析。采用主成分分析的方法形成了影响房价上涨的因素,并使用最小二乘回归估计了影响房价上涨的因素。乌克兰住宅房地产市场演变的五个阶段是根据两个一般指标确定的:房价增长和信贷活动。细分是基于市场条件的重大变化和/或房价驱动因素的变化,以及监管环境的变化。在每个阶段的影响房价的因素进行了调查,使用主成分分析,以确定回归分析的变量。已经形成了一套标准,用来评估当前房价的上涨是否对国家金融体系和整体经济构成系统性风险。提出三个假设并进行实证验证,结果表明:在观察期内,需求因素对房价的影响最大;宏观金融状况主要影响一级房地产市场的价格;贷款条件主要仅在乌克兰住房市场发展的第一阶段影响价格动态,这是在本研究中确定的。乌克兰住房市场的主要驱动因素是失业率、收入增长水平和人口规模。得出的结论可以显著有助于乌克兰住房市场的监测系统及其产生的系统性风险的分析。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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