Clustering Countries based on the Trend of COVID-19 Mortality Rates: An Application of Growth Mixture Models

Abstract

Background: The pattern of death due to COVID-19 is not the same worldwide and requires special approaches and strategies to identify. Objective: This study aimed to investigate the pattern of COVID-19 mortality rates in different countries using the Growth Mixture Model (GMM). Methods: This longitudinal study examined mortality trends due to COVID-19 for 214 countries during 2020-2022. Data were extracted from the World Health Organization reports. Countries were classified using Latent Growth Models (LGM) and GMM based on reported death trends. Results: Countries worldwide were classified into four clusters with different mortality patterns due to COVID-19. The highest increase in the death rate was related to cluster 2, including three countries of Iran, Peru, and Spain. The lowest increase in the death rate in each period belonged to cluster 1, which included about 60% of the world's countries. In cluster 3, most European countries, the United States, and a few countries from South America and Southeast Asia were placed. Italy was the only country in the fourth cluster. Conclusion: Our findings showed which countries performed better or worse in dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic.