Peter Babyenda, Jane Kabubo-Mariara, Sule Odhiambo
{"title":"Climate variability and agricultural productivity in Uganda","authors":"Peter Babyenda, Jane Kabubo-Mariara, Sule Odhiambo","doi":"10.53936/afjare.2023.18(1).2","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Uganda’s climate is changing in terms of rising temperatures and altered precipitation patterns, leading to extreme meteorological conditions such as prolonged drought, floods and landslides. Yet the majority (68%) of Ugandans rely largely on rain-fed agriculture, which is affected by climate variability. This study therefore investigates the effect of climate variability on agricultural productivity in Uganda by combining long-term climate data, sourced from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and six waves of the Uganda National Panel Survey (UNPS) spanning the period 2009 to 2019. Trends and the regression analysis estimated with panel data confirm the existence of climate variability, as well as the vulnerability of farming households across Uganda. The empirical results indicate a significant U-shaped impact of precipitation variability on agricultural productivity. This tends to suggest that, as variability in precipitation intensifies, farming households will adapt to the changing precipitation and thereby improve their productivity. The regional and crop-specific analysis show that, relative to other regions of the country, Eastern Uganda is likely to be the region affected the most, while beans and banana are likely to be affected more by climate variability compared to other crops such as maize and cassava. The study thus recommends measures aimed at encouraging farmers to adapt and increase agricultural productivity. There is a need to strengthen the provision of extension services and inform farmers about climate variability","PeriodicalId":45228,"journal":{"name":"African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics-AFJARE","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.4000,"publicationDate":"2023-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics-AFJARE","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.53936/afjare.2023.18(1).2","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Uganda’s climate is changing in terms of rising temperatures and altered precipitation patterns, leading to extreme meteorological conditions such as prolonged drought, floods and landslides. Yet the majority (68%) of Ugandans rely largely on rain-fed agriculture, which is affected by climate variability. This study therefore investigates the effect of climate variability on agricultural productivity in Uganda by combining long-term climate data, sourced from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and six waves of the Uganda National Panel Survey (UNPS) spanning the period 2009 to 2019. Trends and the regression analysis estimated with panel data confirm the existence of climate variability, as well as the vulnerability of farming households across Uganda. The empirical results indicate a significant U-shaped impact of precipitation variability on agricultural productivity. This tends to suggest that, as variability in precipitation intensifies, farming households will adapt to the changing precipitation and thereby improve their productivity. The regional and crop-specific analysis show that, relative to other regions of the country, Eastern Uganda is likely to be the region affected the most, while beans and banana are likely to be affected more by climate variability compared to other crops such as maize and cassava. The study thus recommends measures aimed at encouraging farmers to adapt and increase agricultural productivity. There is a need to strengthen the provision of extension services and inform farmers about climate variability
期刊介绍:
The African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics (AfJARE)/Journal Africain d’Economie Agricole et des Ressources (JAEAR) is a publication of the African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE). The journal publishes original research about how African agriculture interacts with local and global economic systems and policy regimes in its impacts upon people. The scope of the journal covers the roles of markets, technology, policy, institutions and the natural environment in shaping the lives of well being of Africans engaged in agricultural activities. The journal strives to nurture and enhance the capacity of African professionals to conduct and publish scientific research and provides a venue for communicating and disseminating their findings. Multi-disciplinary, problem-oriented articles are encouraged. Submissions may deal with teaching, research extension, consulting, advising, entrepreneurship and administration. The Chief Editors and Editorial Board, under the general direction of the AAAE President, Executive Committee and Council are charged with implementing Journal policy to serve members of AAAE. The main section of the journal publishes technical research articles while a small section is devoted to publishing brief notes with important policy content and book reviews. The journal is a quarterly publication.