Flash Drought Indicator Inter-Comparison in the United States

IF 2.6 3区地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology Pub Date : 2023-10-13 DOI:10.1175/jamc-d-23-0081.1

Trent W. Ford, Jason A. Otkin, Steven M. Quiring, Joel Lisonbee, Molly Woloszyn, Junming Wang, Yafang Zhong

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Abstract Increased flash drought awareness in recent years has motivated the development of numerous indicators for monitoring, early warning, and assessment. The flash drought indicators can act as a complementary set of tools by which to inform flash drought response and management. However, the limitations of each indicator much be measured and communicated between research and practitioners to ensure effectiveness. The limitations of any flash drought indicator are better understood and overcome through assessment of indicator sensitivity and consistency; however, such assessment cannot assume any single indicator properly represents the flash drought “truth”. To better understand the current state of flash drought monitoring, this study presents an inter-comparison of nine, widely used flash drought indicators. The indicators represent perspectives and processes that are known to drive flash drought, including evapotranspiration and evaporative demand, precipitation, and soil moisture. We find no single flash drought indicator consistently outperforms all others across the contiguous United States. We do find the evaporative demand- and evapotranspiration- driven indicators tend to lead precipitation- and soil moisture-based indicators in flash drought onset, but also tend to produce more flash drought events collectively. Overall, the regional and definition-specific variability in results supports the argument for a multi-indicator approach for flash drought monitoring, as advocated by recent studies. Furthermore, flash drought research – especially evaluation of historical and potential future changes in flash drought characteristics – should test multiple indicators, datasets, and methods for representing flash drought, and ideally employ a multi-indicator analysis frameworks over use of a single indicator from which to infer all flash drought information.

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美国突发性干旱指标间比较

近年来，人们对突发性干旱的认识不断提高，这推动了许多监测、预警和评估指标的发展。突发性干旱指标可以作为一套辅助工具，为突发性干旱的应对和管理提供信息。然而，每个指标的局限性都需要在研究人员和实践者之间进行衡量和沟通，以确保有效性。通过评估指标的敏感性和一致性，可以更好地理解和克服任何突发性干旱指标的局限性;然而，这种评估不能假设任何单一指标都能恰当地代表突发性干旱的“真相”。为了更好地了解突发性干旱监测的现状，本研究对9个广泛使用的突发性干旱指标进行了相互比较。这些指标代表了已知导致突发性干旱的观点和过程，包括蒸散发和蒸发需求、降水和土壤湿度。我们发现，在美国各地，没有一个单一的突发性干旱指标始终优于所有其他指标。我们确实发现，以蒸发需求和蒸散发为驱动的指标在突发性干旱发生时往往领先于以降水和土壤湿度为基础的指标，但也往往产生更多的突发性干旱事件。总的来说，结果的区域和特定定义的可变性支持了最近研究所提倡的多指标方法来监测突发性干旱的论点。此外，突发性干旱研究——特别是对突发性干旱特征的历史和潜在未来变化的评估——应该测试代表突发性干旱的多种指标、数据集和方法，最好采用多指标分析框架，而不是使用单一指标来推断所有突发性干旱信息。

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来源期刊

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 地学-气象与大气科学

CiteScore

5.10

自引率

6.70%

发文量

审稿时长

3 months

期刊介绍： The Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology (JAMC) (ISSN: 1558-8424; eISSN: 1558-8432) publishes applied research on meteorology and climatology. Examples of meteorological research include topics such as weather modification, satellite meteorology, radar meteorology, boundary layer processes, physical meteorology, air pollution meteorology (including dispersion and chemical processes), agricultural and forest meteorology, mountain meteorology, and applied meteorological numerical models. Examples of climatological research include the use of climate information in impact assessments, dynamical and statistical downscaling, seasonal climate forecast applications and verification, climate risk and vulnerability, development of climate monitoring tools, and urban and local climates.