The impact of COVID-19 on the number and structure of medical specialists in Moscow

Abstract

Introduction. Despite the presence of positive trends in the provision of medical specialties, there are currently a number of personnel problems in both Russian and world health care. The experience of fighting against coronavirus has proved the importance of solving personnel problems in healthcare, strengthening medical personnel in particular. Purpose. To assess the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the number and structure of medical personnel in Moscow; to predict the number of medical personnel for a short-term period. Material and methods. The methods of mathematical-statistical and empirical analyses are used. To analyze the composition of medical personnel, data from the forms of federal statistical observation No. 30 “Information about a medical institution” provided by medical institutions in Moscow for 2013–2022 were used. Changes in the structure were estimated using the Gatev coefficient, Salai and Ryabtsev indices. The quality of proposed one–factor model (t — time) for prediction is proven by Fisher’s F-test and Student’s t-test (95 CI%). Results. During the pandemic, there was an outflow and shortage of doctors of certain specialties, which led to a huge overload of the remaining staff. As a result, the proportion of specialists under the age of 36 increased by 17.4%, and the number of therapists increased by 13.6%. The provision of doctors to the population in Moscow has increased by almost 5% over five years. By the end of 2023, the number of doctors of all specialties is expected to increase by 1.6–2.9%. Limitations of the study. When studying the number and composition of medical personnel, data from 251 medical institution of Moscow during 2013–2022 was used which is a fairly informative sample. Conclusion. The analysis showed a significant impact of COVID-19 on both the number and structure of medical personnel. There is a tendency to increase the number of doctors, and the enlargement of medical personnel is expected by the end of 2023.