Hydrological Modeling and Evaluation of Water Balance Over the Complex Topography of Nile Basin Headwaters: The Case of Ghba River, Northern Ethiopia

Mehari Gebreyohannes Hiben, Admasu Gebeyehu Awoke, Abraha Adugna Ashenafi
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Abstract

Water resource evaluation, management, and conservation at the local, national, and international levels depend on an accurate understanding of the hydrological processes. In data-poor environments and topographically complicated areas like the Ghba subbasin in the headwaters of the Nile River, the function of hydrological models is crucial. The primary goal of this study is to use the WEAP model to simulate the hydrology of the Ghba basin. This is because recent hydrological behaviour has changed significantly and resulted in a serious water deficit. The minimal satisfactory performance limit for the monthly stream flow variable was strongly attained by the multi-variable calibration scenario (R2 = 0.82, NSE = 0.82, IA= 0.80 RSR = 0.87 and PBIAS = 9 % for calibration scenario; and R2 = 0.78, NSE = 0.81, IA= 0.70 RSR = 0.80 and PBIAS = 11.5 % for validation scenario). Evapotranspiration makes up 63.4% of the water balance, according to the model simulation, while surface runoff, interflow, baseflow and groundwater recharge accounting for 11.1 %, 11.8%, 5.4% and 8.3 %, respectively. The simulated average annual streamflow at the subbasin outlet is 16.33 m3/s. The simulated monthly minimum flow occurs in January with an average flow of 1.78 m3/s and a coefficient of dispersion of 0.45. Maximum flows occur in July and August, with an average flow of 53.57 m3/s and a coefficient of dispersion of 0.19. The main rainy season was shown to have a larger spatial distribution of simulated runoff, and the average annual recharge value is 53.5 mm. The study's conclusions indicated that both surface water harvesting and groundwater extraction might be used for reliable water distribution to the subbasin's continuously increasing sectoral water demand.
尼罗盆地源头复杂地形的水文模拟与水平衡评价——以埃塞俄比亚北部Ghba河为例
地方、国家和国际层面的水资源评估、管理和保护取决于对水文过程的准确理解。在数据贫乏的环境和地形复杂的地区,如尼罗河源头的Ghba次盆地,水文模型的功能至关重要。本研究的主要目的是利用WEAP模型对Ghba盆地的水文进行模拟。这是因为最近的水文行为发生了重大变化,导致了严重的缺水。多变量定标情景对月流量变量的最小满意性能限制(R2 = 0.82, NSE = 0.82, IA= 0.80, RSR = 0.87, PBIAS = 9%)得到了较强的满足;R2 = 0.78, NSE = 0.81, IA= 0.70, RSR = 0.80, PBIAS = 11.5%)。根据模型模拟,蒸散发占水量平衡的63.4%,地表径流、间流、基流和地下水补给分别占11.1%、11.8%、5.4%和8.3%。模拟次流域出口年平均流量为16.33 m3/s。模拟的月最小流量出现在1月份,平均流量为1.78 m3/s,离散系数为0.45。7月和8月流量最大,平均流量为53.57 m3/s,离散系数为0.19。主雨季模拟径流空间分布较大,年平均补给量为53.5 mm。该研究的结论表明,地表水收集和地下水提取都可以用于可靠的水分配,以满足次流域不断增加的部门用水需求。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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