Comparative Economic and Statistical Study about Fish Catch from Manzalah before and during Dredging Operations for Developing the Lake’s Fisheries

Abstract

The bio, social, and economic sustainability of Lake Manzallah fisheries was affected because of pollution, dehydration, and fishers’ / outlaw encroachments. Fish catch and productivity have decreased sharply. The Egyptian government interfered in 2017 and introduced action plan for restoring the lake’s vitality. NIOF research team took part and conducted a research that aims at estimating the secular trend of total fish catch and of the major marine and brackish waters species: Tilapia, Catfish and Mullet, before and during the plan. The research also aims at assessing optimal catch-effort relation before and during the plan, and the effect of the plan on the fishers’ livelihood. The methodology involves time series analysis and Schaefer Surplus model. Field visits and meetings with the plan team and GAFRD officials were held. The results of the study revealed a decreasing secular trend of total fish catch and of major marine and brackish species in the first period of study. During the plan works, it was found that the real catch data of Tilapia, Catfish and Mullet species published in GAFRD statistics were higher than the forecasted catches of the first period by about 14%, 36.2% and 99.3% respectively. The money value of this increase will assist greatly in improving fishers’ livelihood and gross fish income of the lake’s fisheries. It was also found that the actual number of boats (2.7 thousand) in the first period is lower than the estimated allowable limit (3.2 thousand) by about 500 boats, and that the real fish catch (54.9 thousand tons) is also lower than the allowable estimated catch (66.1 thousand tons) by about 11.2 thousand tons. It is recommended to increase the number of licensed working boats by about 500 boats. Updating data, increasing the accuracy of catch-effort data, and reducing lag period are also recommended.