Un enfoque de regresión armónica dinámica para estimar la evapotranspiración de aguas subterráneas basado en las fluctuaciones diarias del nivel freático

IF 2.4 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
Rebecca Doble, Glen Walker, Russell Crosbie, Joseph Guillaume, Tanya Doody
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Abstract

Abstract The Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) is a highly allocated and regulated, mostly semiarid basin in south-eastern Australia, where groundwater is a significant water resource. Future climate predictions for the MDB include an expansion of arid and semiarid climate zones to replace temperate areas. The impacts of climate change are already evident in declining groundwater levels and changes in the connection status between rivers and groundwater, and modelling has predicted a further reduction in future groundwater recharge and ongoing declines in groundwater levels. This is predicted to further reduce river baseflow and negatively impact groundwater-dependent ecosystems (GDEs), and these system responses to a changing climate and extreme events are complex and not always well understood. This report provides an overview of the current state of knowledge of groundwater response to a changing climate for the MDB, and outlines challenges and opportunities for future groundwater research and management. Opportunities for the region include improving data systems and acquisition through automation and novel data sources, and growing capability in integrated, risk-based modelling. Quantification of the groundwater/surface-water connection response to declining groundwater levels, and assessing GDE water requirements and thresholds, would enable identification of vulnerable systems and inform the development of metrics for adaptive management, improving the ability to respond to climate extremes. There is potential to adapt policy to support active management of groundwater where required, including conjunctive use and water banking. Improving knowledge sharing and water literacy, including understanding community values of groundwater and GDEs, would support future decision-making.

Abstract Image

一种基于地下水位每日波动估计地下水蒸散量的动态调和回归方法
墨累-达令盆地(MDB)是澳大利亚东南部一个高度分配和调控的半干旱盆地,地下水是该地重要的水资源。多边开发计划署对未来气候的预测包括扩大干旱和半干旱气候带以取代温带地区。气候变化的影响已经在地下水水位下降和河流与地下水连接状况的变化中表现得很明显,模型预测未来地下水补给将进一步减少,地下水水位将持续下降。预计这将进一步减少河流基流,并对依赖地下水的生态系统(GDEs)产生负面影响,而这些系统对气候变化和极端事件的响应是复杂的,并不总是很好地理解。本报告概述了多边开发银行地下水对气候变化响应的现状,并概述了未来地下水研究和管理面临的挑战和机遇。该地区面临的机遇包括通过自动化和新数据源改进数据系统和获取,以及提高基于风险的综合建模能力。对地下水/地表水连接对地下水水位下降的响应进行量化,并评估GDE水需求和阈值,将有助于识别脆弱系统,并为制定适应性管理指标提供信息,从而提高应对极端气候的能力。有可能调整政策,在需要时支持对地下水的积极管理,包括联合利用和水银行。改善知识共享和水素养,包括了解地下水和gde的社区价值,将有助于未来的决策。
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来源期刊
Hydrogeology Journal
Hydrogeology Journal 地学-地球科学综合
CiteScore
5.40
自引率
7.10%
发文量
128
审稿时长
6 months
期刊介绍: Hydrogeology Journal was founded in 1992 to foster understanding of hydrogeology; to describe worldwide progress in hydrogeology; and to provide an accessible forum for scientists, researchers, engineers, and practitioners in developing and industrialized countries. Since then, the journal has earned a large worldwide readership. Its peer-reviewed research articles integrate subsurface hydrology and geology with supporting disciplines: geochemistry, geophysics, geomorphology, geobiology, surface-water hydrology, tectonics, numerical modeling, economics, and sociology.
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