Modeling Explosive Ordnance Disposal Reconnaissance Under Uncertainty

Abstract

With the dramatic increase in the role of mine blast obstacles in modern armed conflicts, mine blast reconnaissance is one of the most important tasks of engineering troops to ensure the successful execution of their combat tasks by military units. However, in situations where the enemy is trying to conceal their intentions, engineering reconnaissance tasks are almost always carried out under conditions of uncertainty. In these cases the research methods that allow modeling the process of reconnaissance of mine blast obstacles in a stochastic formulation come to the fore. The article presents the procedure of stochastic modeling of minefield section reconnaissance on the basis of statistical functions describing temporal character of consecutive actions of engineering-intelligence group. The output of the stochastic model is a distribution function in the form of the time required by an engineering reconnaissance team to conduct minefield reconnaissance. Based on the risk-based approach and the stochastic model, the influence of factors and conditions on the time of reconnaissance by an engineering reconnaissance team was investigated and their ranking was performed. Given that the factors that determine the time of follow-up survey of detected mines and processing of false signals are characterized by a high influence, it is proposed one of the ways to improve mine detection means, consisting in combining with a mine detector additional channel that allows you to determine the presence of an explosive substance in its chemical image in the form of vapor characteristic of its components in the air. The conclusion is made about the necessity of implementing a risk-oriented approach in the scientific and practical activities of engineering troops.