The Effect of Fuel Price Fluctuations, Exchange Rates, and Profitability on Stock Returns and Inflation as Intervening Variables

Eko Budi Satoto
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Abstract

This study aims to analyze the impact of fuel price fluctuations, exchange rates, and profitability on inflation and stock returns. The study employs statistical analysis utilizing SEM techniques and is tested using Smart PLS version 3.0. The study reveals that Fuel price fluctuations have no effect on Inflation. The direction of the relationship between Exchange Rate and Inflation is negative. Profitability has no effect on Inflation. Fuel price fluctuations have no effect on stock returns. Exchange rate has a significant effect with a positive direction on stock returns. Profitability has no direct effect on stock returns. Inflation has a significant effect directly with a negative direction on Stock Returns. Exchange rate has no effect on stock returns through inflation as an intervening variable. Profitability has a significant effect with a positive direction on stock returns through inflation as an intervening variable. The novelty in research is inflation as an intervening variable. Investors are advised that fluctuations in fuel prices and inflation rates need not be a primary concern in their investment decisions. Instead, the focus should be on assessing the potential impact of these factors on company profits. Consequently, investors should emphasize monitoring stock returns periodically while also taking into account variables that could influence a company's stock returns. The study is limited in its scope by examining only three independent variables—Fuel Price Fluctuations, Exchange Rates, and Profitability. Additionally, the research is confined to the period from 2013 to 2017.
燃料价格波动、汇率和盈利能力对股票收益和通货膨胀的影响
本研究旨在分析燃料价格波动、汇率和盈利能力对通货膨胀和股票回报的影响。本研究采用SEM技术进行统计分析,并使用Smart PLS 3.0版本进行测试。研究表明,燃料价格波动对通货膨胀没有影响。汇率与通货膨胀之间的关系方向为负。盈利能力对通货膨胀没有影响。燃料价格波动对股票收益没有影响。汇率对股票收益有显著的正向影响。盈利能力对股票收益没有直接影响。通货膨胀对股票收益有显著的直接负向影响。通过通货膨胀作为中介变量,汇率对股票收益没有影响。通过通货膨胀作为中介变量,盈利能力对股票收益有显著的正向影响。研究中的新奇之处在于通货膨胀作为一个中间变量。投资者应注意,燃料价格和通货膨胀率的波动无须成为其投资决策的主要考虑因素。相反,重点应该放在评估这些因素对公司利润的潜在影响上。因此,投资者应该强调定期监测股票回报,同时也要考虑到可能影响公司股票回报的变量。这项研究的范围有限,只考察了三个独立变量——燃料价格波动、汇率和盈利能力。此外,该研究仅限于2013年至2017年期间。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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