Introduction to the Special Issue on Polar Predictions

Abstract

The forecast skill of GEM-NEMO, one of two constituent models that together comprise CanSIPSv2, is found to generally exceed that of the other, CanCM4i. This difference is potentially due to substantial model drift of sea ice extent away from observations in CanCM4i, in addition to their different initializations of sea ice thickness. Both models show signi fi cant forecast skill exceeding that of an anomaly persistence forecast. Prediction skill was found to vary substantially across different sectors of the Southern Ocean. Moreover, their analysis also fi nds that CanSIPSv2 forecast skill in the Antarctic shows a dependence on time period, demonstrating generally lower skill than seen in the Arctic over the years 1980-2010, in contrast to generally higher skill than in the Arctic over the years 1980-2019