HEC-RAS BASED COMPOUND FLOOD ANALYSIS FOR PROJECT PLANNING AND DESIGN

Max Agnew, Jonathan K. Marshall
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Abstract

US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Coastal Storm Risk Management (CSRM) projects along the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts are often designed using coastal hazard models that neglect rainfall, riverine inflows and other important physics necessary for accurate flood risk estimation. In transition zone areas that are subject to compound flood effects, using models that neglect rainfall and river contributions may lead to under-designed levee and floodwall elevations that do not meet the project’s intended level of risk reduction. Without the proper characterization of total water level statistics, CSRM designers often pick more unlikely and perhaps overly conservative design scenarios (ie 100 year storm surge plus 100 year rainfall plus 100 year riverine flood). The neglect of compound flood physics influences important calculations typically involved in coastal project planning such as annual expected damages, project costs, benefit cost ratios, making it difficult to plan and select optimal infrastructure.
基于Hec-ras的复合洪水分析进行工程规划设计
美国陆军工程兵团(USACE)墨西哥湾和大西洋沿岸的海岸风暴风险管理(CSRM)项目经常使用沿海灾害模型来设计,这些模型忽略了降雨量、河流流入和其他准确估计洪水风险所必需的重要物理特性。在受复合洪水影响的过渡区,使用忽略降雨和河流贡献的模型可能导致未充分设计的堤坝和防洪墙高程,无法达到项目预期的风险降低水平。如果没有适当的总水位统计特征,CSRM设计师通常会选择更不可能的,也许过于保守的设计场景(即100年风暴潮+ 100年降雨+ 100年河流洪水)。对复合洪水物理的忽视影响了沿海工程规划中通常涉及的重要计算,如年预期损失、工程成本、效益成本比,使规划和选择最优基础设施变得困难。
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