Comparative assessment of drought indices for evaluating drought patterns in Peninsular Malaysia

IF 2.7 4区环境科学与生态学 Q2 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Water and Climate Change Pub Date : 2023-09-25 DOI:10.2166/wcc.2023.546

Jing Lin Ng, Yuk Feng Huang, Aik Hang Chong, Jin Chai Lee, Muyideen Abdulkareem, Nur Ilya Farhana Md Noh, Majid Mirzaei, Ali Najah Ahmed

{"title":"Comparative assessment of drought indices for evaluating drought patterns in Peninsular Malaysia","authors":"Jing Lin Ng, Yuk Feng Huang, Aik Hang Chong, Jin Chai Lee, Muyideen Abdulkareem, Nur Ilya Farhana Md Noh, Majid Mirzaei, Ali Najah Ahmed","doi":"10.2166/wcc.2023.546","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Drought has been the main environmental issue in Peninsular Malaysia. Hence, this study undertook a thorough evaluation of drought assessment methodologies and focused on the temporal analysis of multiple drought indices namely, the standardised precipitation index (SPI), deciles index (DI), percent of normal precipitation (PNPI), rainfall anomaly index (RAI) and Z-score index (ZSI) – across timescales of 1-, 6- and 12-month durations. This assessment incorporates the average moving range (AMR), Mann–Kendall (MK) test and Sen's slope estimator in temporal analysis and the results showed that shorter timescales lead to higher fluctuation in AMR values, indicating short-term droughts are best assessed using drought indices of shorter timescale. It was found that most drought indices exhibited a similar trend and trend magnitude in all timescales. SPI is utilised as the standard model for the accuracy evaluation of drought indices using root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The results showed that ZSI has the highest accuracy of all indices. The novelty of this study lies in evaluating the accuracy and temporal characteristics of precipitation-based drought indices in tropical areas, particularly in Peninsular Malaysia.","PeriodicalId":49150,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Water and Climate Change","volume":"66 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":2.7000,"publicationDate":"2023-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Water and Climate Change","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2023.546","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"WATER RESOURCES","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Abstract Drought has been the main environmental issue in Peninsular Malaysia. Hence, this study undertook a thorough evaluation of drought assessment methodologies and focused on the temporal analysis of multiple drought indices namely, the standardised precipitation index (SPI), deciles index (DI), percent of normal precipitation (PNPI), rainfall anomaly index (RAI) and Z-score index (ZSI) – across timescales of 1-, 6- and 12-month durations. This assessment incorporates the average moving range (AMR), Mann–Kendall (MK) test and Sen's slope estimator in temporal analysis and the results showed that shorter timescales lead to higher fluctuation in AMR values, indicating short-term droughts are best assessed using drought indices of shorter timescale. It was found that most drought indices exhibited a similar trend and trend magnitude in all timescales. SPI is utilised as the standard model for the accuracy evaluation of drought indices using root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The results showed that ZSI has the highest accuracy of all indices. The novelty of this study lies in evaluating the accuracy and temporal characteristics of precipitation-based drought indices in tropical areas, particularly in Peninsular Malaysia.

查看原文本刊更多论文

评估马来西亚半岛干旱模式的干旱指数比较评估

干旱一直是马来西亚半岛的主要环境问题。因此，本研究对干旱评估方法进行了全面的评估，并重点分析了多个干旱指标，即标准化降水指数(SPI)、十分位数指数(DI)、正常降水百分比(PNPI)、降雨异常指数(RAI)和Z-score指数(ZSI)在1个月、6个月和12个月持续时间尺度上的时间分析。结果表明，时间尺度越短，平均移动距离(AMR)、Mann-Kendall (MK)检验和Sen’s斜率估计的波动幅度越大，表明使用时间尺度越短的干旱指标对短期干旱的评价效果越好。结果表明，大部分干旱指数在各时间尺度上均表现出相似的趋势和趋势幅度。利用SPI作为标准模型，利用均方根误差(RMSE)、平均绝对误差(MAE)和平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)对干旱指数进行精度评价。结果表明，ZSI在所有指标中准确率最高。本研究的新颖之处在于评估了热带地区，特别是马来西亚半岛基于降水的干旱指数的准确性和时间特征。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Journal of Water and Climate Change WATER RESOURCES-

CiteScore

4.80

自引率

10.70%

发文量

168

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： Journal of Water and Climate Change publishes refereed research and practitioner papers on all aspects of water science, technology, management and innovation in response to climate change, with emphasis on reduction of energy usage.